Posts by "dodger"

What I don"t get station is how much attention was paid to a tiny ecconomy like greece,where the second biggest greek city is actually melbourne!Then you get major coastal provinces of china with their hundreds of millions having problems and it does"nt seem to register with the same gravity.Even after what I thought was a very dark statement by RBA stevens.

Euro had a run down to 1.2480 us / 109.13 jpy but found support corporate and possibly sovereign in early asia despite weak stocks and commodities,aussie trade surplus also helped but that was last year not the coming one.Harvard ecconomics professor Ken Rogoff has been telling the wider world about chinas real estate problems,this and related asian stock and commodity weakness if extending into europe could return the pressure for a stronger run down to test 1.2480us/109.13jpy support,unless there is a shock or hawkish language on aussie rate decision,Ashraf reckons they could cut before Xmas,any dovish language along those lines would further confirm the slow down in china demand/aussie supply nexus which would spread a bit of risk aversion.Gone short 109.50,stop 111.30,for a break of the support.

Euro came a long way very quickly,it was supported by some positive fundamentals happening in europe at same time as negative data came out in the states,also fair to say it was oversold and once the move was underway a lot of shorts had to be covered rapidly which amplified the upward move.However as we well know,rapid upward movements even more than rapid down moves have a tendency to fall back often as rapidly as they have risen,the problems that caused euro to decline are still out there!Should another threat of a downgrade or light demand manifest at a sovereign auction or industrial unrest of which theres plenty planned,or more obvious signs of a slowing china or any number of still unsolved problems raise an ugly head.Like a needle bursting a balloon there is now much more potential distance in a downside fall even with the bolingers now widened than there was before!

20day about to cross 200day on 5minute euro chart.

ADP employment at 14.15 CET(12.30 GMT),that could either spoil the party for euro or give it the push through 1.2300/15,third possiblity could dip and catch better buying levels,keeping fingers crossed that Chicargo PMI is to the upside at13.45 GMT (15.45 CET),if both figures are positive with futures also positive we could be on a run for Euro/US and Euro/jpy! Fasten seat belts.