Posts by "frankbrit"

Ashraf, I don't know about you but there seems to be a tension building in the market. Appreciate your take on the VIX. What are the chances it breaks the descending trendline at about 25 and heads north?

Hello once again @ said. Long time. In my view the 1980's was the key decade of transition. The end of the cold war coincided with the opening up of financial markets in the west and easy and fast-moving capital. The frequency of crises has also increased during this time - no coincidence. In historical terms a generation is viewed as 30 years ... Just long enough to forget the lessons of the past.

@ chloethebull tanker rates are very low now and this encourages stockpiling as cheap mobile storage by oil traders. Gazillions of tonnes of oil looking for a home and hoping the price doesn't bomb and they have to take it into port. All that supply stuck out at sea and not even in the stockpile statistics ... sound familiar? And what happens to tanker rates when they eventually dump their cargo and are tramping for more biz? I read some months back that distillates are at 30 year record levels in the US also. What this supply/demand story does not factor in is the investment/inflation hedge aspect of the price.

Another thought: China and Japan clearly see each other as export rivals so that if China is being pushed to allow the RNB to strengthen then they will naturally want the Yen to strengthen too in order to ensure they keep their relative price competitiveness with Japan. Face-off.

You saw it on "Whatever Happened to Baby Jane". The big boys (played by Bette Davis) have been spoiled for so long by Daddy (the FED and central banks) that they no longer live in the real world. Eisenhower's military-industrial complex has been replaced by a political-financial complex these last three decades.