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263 Posts Total by "nzvik":

225 Posts by member

nzvik

(Auckland, New Zealand)

38 Posts by Anonymous "nzvik":

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nzvik

Auckland, New Zealand

Posts: 225

14 years ago

Jan 14, 2010 0:37

In Thread: EUR Trade Index 18-Year Chart

AUD jobs up 35k+ thats better than the 32k - last 3 months average

nzvik

Auckland, New Zealand

Posts: 225

14 years ago

Jan 13, 2010 23:38

In Thread: EUR Trade Index 18-Year Chart

Ashraf

Last three months average job gain is 32k, the forecast is just 10K - an easy number to beat and force a rally to 94.

last month the forecast was +5k and the actual was +32k. However, AUDUSD rallied about 80 points over the day before coming back in the next 2 days. But do remember in early Dec we were in a USD bull phase - now it appears we are not - so a a good beat could take it to 94 or more.
we will know in the next 55 mins

cheers
vik

nzvik

Auckland, New Zealand

Posts: 225

14 years ago

Jan 13, 2010 23:18

In Thread: EUR Trade Index 18-Year Chart

spec has been calling for some sort of USD rally since Aug 09. be mindful - spec is long term player - trading over quarterly and yearly time frames unlike most of us here playing with hours, days and at most a week.

nzvik

Auckland, New Zealand

Posts: 225

14 years ago

Jan 13, 2010 18:36

In Thread: EUR Trade Index 18-Year Chart

@pippedoff

what you call manipulation is simply the market

nzvik

Auckland, New Zealand

Posts: 225

14 years ago

Jan 12, 2010 10:35

In Thread: Don't Forget the Yen

@pippedoff

GBP hits 1.6150 before 1.6050 -

nzvik

Auckland, New Zealand

Posts: 225

14 years ago

Jan 12, 2010 6:30

In Thread: Don't Forget the Yen

disclosure to forum related to previous post :

i am long eurusd from 1.4420, stop now at b/e. T1 : 1.4574. T2 :1.4680, T3 : 1.4790

1.4440 is now support for today according to my indicators.

nzvik

Auckland, New Zealand

Posts: 225

14 years ago

Jan 12, 2010 6:20

In Thread: Don't Forget the Yen

Ashraf

bias is to the downside for USD. Even GBP USD cannot be pushed down to 1.6 and as I write is back above 1.61 - but lets disregard this as noise.

earnings may not be a game changer this quarter as I expect results to be around expectations, and we have already started seen sizeable decoupling of the USDX from Equities, the inverse co-relation has been fragile for the last 6 weeks or so.
the game changer is the NFP which after a loss of 85k - may help keep QE and low rates for an extended time. till the fed makes some sort of definitive announcement on a timeline - the market will assume extended to mean indefinite. historically the fed does not talk of raising rates when employment is at 10%.

Fundamentals aside - the price momentum since NFP and a couple of days before that has been up for eurusd. the upside i think is high - 1.47 thru to 1.5. till price momentum remains upward i see no reason to be short. whether the top for the time being is 1.4620 or 1.48 - i am not very sure, but i would not advise anyone to short this yet.

nzvik

Auckland, New Zealand

Posts: 225

14 years ago

Jan 11, 2010 21:36

In Thread: Euro's Third Down Leg

this maybe of interest - USD bulls be cautious

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ab2S.a9MQJSY&pos=3

nzvik

Auckland, New Zealand

Posts: 225

14 years ago

Jan 11, 2010 19:58