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Don't Forget the Yen
Much ado about USD rebounds during falling markets, but JPY strength still outperforms USD.
Are you still bullish on USD/JPY, or do you expect further declines before the uptrend continues ?
i am long eurusd from 1.4420, stop now at b/e. T1 : 1.4574. T2 :1.4680, T3 : 1.4790
1.4440 is now support for today according to my indicators.
bias is to the downside for USD. Even GBP USD cannot be pushed down to 1.6 and as I write is back above 1.61 - but lets disregard this as noise.
earnings may not be a game changer this quarter as I expect results to be around expectations, and we have already started seen sizeable decoupling of the USDX from Equities, the inverse co-relation has been fragile for the last 6 weeks or so.
the game changer is the NFP which after a loss of 85k - may help keep QE and low rates for an extended time. till the fed makes some sort of definitive announcement on a timeline - the market will assume extended to mean indefinite. historically the fed does not talk of raising rates when employment is at 10%.
Fundamentals aside - the price momentum since NFP and a couple of days before that has been up for eurusd. the upside i think is high - 1.47 thru to 1.5. till price momentum remains upward i see no reason to be short. whether the top for the time being is 1.4620 or 1.48 - i am not very sure, but i would not advise anyone to short this yet.
Ashraf
Not sure I follow your point exactly but I think my answer is "No". I don't really believe that markets are efficient (especially when they aren't left to themselves like today ...). Overreactions followed by overcompensation to the reactions and so on pertutuum mobile ad nauseam ... that creates opportunities of course ... Hope this answers your question somewhat without writing a tome.
My six-pence worth comment on EUR/USD (which I don't really follow as I said before) is from a quick look at basic technicals from which it seems that the present move could run a little further before the next real downward move by the USD. I may be wrong ... (and BTW I do believe overall the USD has further to strengthen).
P.S. I'm looking at charts 4 hr and longer and not playing the v.short term at present.
The chart of Gbp is looking atrocious. It is much lower than where it was immediately after NFP was released, and significantly lower on the China news which will soon be old news and forgotton.
This looks like the top short around as eur/gbp is being supported to prop eur/usd over 1.4500
is search for attaianing an equilibrium in term of trade balance between japan and germany makes u say that there is a moumentarily coorection in eurusd
could u explain me money flow in this context?