Posts by "nzvik"

Ashraf

bias is to the downside for USD. Even GBP USD cannot be pushed down to 1.6 and as I write is back above 1.61 - but lets disregard this as noise.

earnings may not be a game changer this quarter as I expect results to be around expectations, and we have already started seen sizeable decoupling of the USDX from Equities, the inverse co-relation has been fragile for the last 6 weeks or so.
the game changer is the NFP which after a loss of 85k - may help keep QE and low rates for an extended time. till the fed makes some sort of definitive announcement on a timeline - the market will assume extended to mean indefinite. historically the fed does not talk of raising rates when employment is at 10%.

Fundamentals aside - the price momentum since NFP and a couple of days before that has been up for eurusd. the upside i think is high - 1.47 thru to 1.5. till price momentum remains upward i see no reason to be short. whether the top for the time being is 1.4620 or 1.48 - i am not very sure, but i would not advise anyone to short this yet.

meant 1.6150 but u could be right about 1.6050

I think USD/JPY will weaken over the next week or two - may head into the 87/88s.
EURUSD looks likely to hit 1.47

after the crazy whipsaws post the NFP release - this slow decline of the dollar in the last 2 hours is quite powerful and likely to continue over the next few weeks. USD bulls could be in trouble.

Fed probability of rate increase diminishes further with the NFP at -85k. The USD rally from Dec 4 started by the previous NFP looks to have ended with the latest negative NFP. However confirmation needed over the next couple of days.