Posts by "raulin"

Ashraf. I think it is more complicated than interest rate differential. Aussie only rallied vs kiwi for the month of April since then it has been falling, clearly we have equity rally March till end June, the months of March April May kiwi has been stronger relatively

Spec Gold has fallen so much because we are likely in a longterm deflationary environment. It would take earnings data to be spectacularly positive to shake equities slide , rememmber there has been no bottom established in house prices unemployment is going up and we have more bad news to come in euopean banks. Look at Japan's latest data producer prices which fell at a record pace in June. On June 30, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Janet Yellen expressed some deep concerns about deflation. Ill put my cards on the table right away, she said. I think the predominant risk is that inflation will be too low, not too high, over the next several years.

I am really worried. Looks like the majority got the view right on where e/u would finish! Seriously I think small traders get the direction AND target right a lot of the time but lose out on position size, stop loss and shorting at support or longing at resistance.

Ashraf it seems to me that CAD/jpy having fallen out of its daily uptrend channel since JAN on the 22 June is looking very suspect and this is very significant (this pair channels very nicely as do some of the other yen pairs (not gbp/jpy!) . I have been looking at some other correlations -usd/cad , very hard to call looking bearish for usd/cad below 1.500 and choppy and I don't particurly see persistent JPY strength unless S and Poors stays below 900 but do know that July is traditionally a poor month for both CAD and JPY but am keen to keep a long term CAD/JPY short. What are your views?

Ashraf. There is no doubt that there will be a diversification out of dollar in longer term what is not clear is where we go short to medium term. So much depends on 10 yr treasuries yields which if continue to rise (yes of course I expect US govt to step in and buy treasuries ) BUT corporate earnings that surprise on the downside (i think better earnings are priced in ) could be very negative for stocks and consequently negative for your gbp/usd your aus/usd and nzd/usd and your euro/USD and euro/jpy and if we break below 880 we go down a long way but this picture could take some weeks to play out so I think it is risky at the moment to be in this choppy market until we break 880 or 950 on Standard and Poors. On Fri I agree there was dollar selling despite stock market falling and there was USD buying on better US economic news (more classical econmic theory earlier in the week) but this to me is reflective of uncertainty and VIX needs to be watched as it is rising, so it is unwise to make predictions. We both know that stock market gains have driven this gbp, euro and aussie rally since March.