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85 Posts Total by "rezz":
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Rezz
(Vancouver, Canada)
8 Posts by Anonymous "rezz":
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Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
11 years ago
Jun 12, 2013 21:14
In Thread: EUR
Well EURUSD price action looks suspect to me lately and may not have conviction.. I am trying to figure out if the pairs strength has been from strength in the Yen against the USD and extreme weakness in the AUD... short term speculative EURJPY traders (likely short) taking profits right after the EURJPY drop, and EURAUD shorts getting blown out with aggressive short covering. Both these can generate enough volume to lift EURUSD!! The first bout of USDJPY weakness also pushed up AUDUSD last week.
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
11 years ago
Jun 7, 2013 22:41
In Thread: EUR
Canadian big banks (BMO, RBC, CIBC, Scotia) openly put out their monthly forecasts. Anyone know which US/other banks that do so as well? Anyways here is the latest RBC FX forecast from today. http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/fmm.pdf
Confirms my longer term view that AUD is likely to stabilize or go down one more leg before stabilizing and recovering. As such EURAUD short not a bad trade especially with the yield differential and also Draghi may have to lower rates or ease further down the line.
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
11 years ago
May 17, 2013 9:35
In Thread: USD
Good article by Hussman on QE myths and elevated S&P earnings... http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc130513.htm
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
11 years ago
May 15, 2013 23:40
In Thread: JPY
Yen crosses havent moved much other than USD pairs. I'd have to think that during consolidation of the USD pairs, the JPY crosses will finally break down ahead of the S&P? EurJpy looks like the prime candidate!
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
11 years ago
Apr 29, 2013 21:13
In Thread: Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
When cnbc starts putting up headlines like thishttp://www.cnbc.com/id/100683015 you know you have to be careful... Buying Gold in Aussie terms is perhaps not a bad idea if you are from Australia.. Same for Canadians, buying gold in C$ terms??
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
11 years ago
Apr 25, 2013 20:31
In Thread: Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
In reply to cloudstr1f3r's post
USDCAD is tough to call right now but easier for me to judge against the other commodity pairs, especially NZD which is also at elevated highs against the AUD... AUDNZD as 1.21 ish now. I certainly expect AUDNZD to get back around 1.25 sometime. I've also been watching NZDCAD lately and my feeling is that in a risk off environment NZD is going to have to come off more than CAD.
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
11 years ago
Apr 24, 2013 21:32
In Thread: Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
In reply to DaveO's post
Thanks Dave for your thoughts. I agree the US economy isnt improving but masked by other factors. I know you follow Mauldin as well and he had a link to this talk by Dr Hussman from hussmanfunds who lays out the current situation with great research and insights. Here is his talk... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TYkCaUB1BQY
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
11 years ago
Apr 19, 2013 21:48
In Thread: Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
Price action in AUD and NZD has this eerie look of similarity to that of gold from earlier in the week. If the so called "deflation" trade is what justified the gold drop (which i dont fully agree with btw), then with AUD and NZD being among the most overvalued on PPP terms, I wouldnt be surprised by a 10% shakeout correction as well. I mean a ~2% yield differential doesnt justify holding on until after a blowout like with GLD. Any thoughts DaveO or others?
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
11 years ago
Mar 18, 2013 5:35
In Thread: EUR
The Cyprus news makes the closing of the gap in EURUSD seem that much harder. I'd imagine a ton of sell orders being placed around the 1.3 level... Whatever happens tomorrow is going to be interesting!!
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
11 years ago
Mar 16, 2013 20:07
In Thread: GBP
Thanks Dave for Mauldin reference which you posted last year and i began to research his thinking on the long supercycles brought on by debt. Mauldin references the work of Harvard's Rogoff and Reinhart and their book "This time is Different" which is also instructive to read (his talks are on youtube).
Another line of thought which may interest you is by Richard Heinberg in his book "end of growth". It talks of fundamental limits to growth caused by the diminishing return on energy (as measured by energy out/in) which is what has powered real GDP growth in the last 200 years. low real growth means stocks should trade much lower, or the dollar needs to devalue. The bankers will try to pump the system but its going to fail and yes one day we will wake up and the bond market would have reacted badly!
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