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85 Posts Total by "rezz":
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Rezz
(Vancouver, Canada)
8 Posts by Anonymous "rezz":
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Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
13 years ago
May 5, 2011 3:07
In Thread: Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
yah, Ive stayed short aussie for a while but wont add any more to my positions. Through Oanda, I see retail positioning being 45% long in AUDUSD and extreme long in AUDJPY (75%), plus near record non-commercial CFTC long positions in aussie. All this is pointing to more losses in short-medium term. Same thing happened with USDJPY after everyone and their grandma started going long!!
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
13 years ago
May 3, 2011 3:49
In Thread: Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
Seems like the conservatives will get majority which should be good for CAD strength, so it may play catchup/not weaken as much as AUD?. A play is short AUDCAD
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
13 years ago
Apr 28, 2011 7:31
In Thread: Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
Interesting article by CIBC london head FX strategy.. "Reality check on CAD and AUD assumptions" ... got it via google cache. http://bit.ly/mcP3oQ
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
13 years ago
Apr 28, 2011 4:25
In Thread: Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
Yes maybe the market wants to touch 1.10 if it makes it feel better! The fundamentals dont justify aussie being now some 40% overvalued on ppp terms (according to bloomberg), more than any other currency. At some point it will hurt the balance of trade, and cause non-resource industries to lack competitiveness if they already aren't. I find it ironic that aussie politicians find it amusing and possibly relish the strength in the aussie, and they havent jawboned yet.
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
13 years ago
Apr 27, 2011 2:47
In Thread: Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
Good time to short AUDUSD @ 1.0840 tp 1.0550. Every conceivable good news is being priced it at this moment, unless the market wants to reprice any little positive a few times over! With the CAD this hasnt happened even with stronger than expected CPI, so its indicating that speculation is at extremes in AUD!
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
13 years ago
Apr 21, 2011 3:19
In Thread: USD
@jacek, I wouldnt be surprised if they took out the "extended period" language. That would stabilize the USDX in a beat and shake things up. I anticipate this latest assault on USDX is being made to maximize returns from forced closing of margin accounts before the main reversal. I expect a pullback before wednesday. The question is how low it will go before then?
Rezz
Canada
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Apr 20, 2011 22:48
In Thread: EUR
Oanda provides an interesting window into its clients positioning at at what levels... http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/forex-order-book#EUR/USD

You can view it for other pairs as well.

What is revealed is what intuitively should be clear, but its nice to see quantification of open positions and also open orders. For EURUSD over 68% are short and there is a lot of density of open buy orders (open states in FX universe) at various levels below current market. This could be new money ready to buy plus it could be the out of money shorts (seen clearly in the distribution graph) deciding to close their positions by buying back, which gives the pair its buoyancy. In short term it will take alot of "energy" to break through these levels it seems.
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
13 years ago
Apr 20, 2011 19:37
In Thread: Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
Anyone else find it odd that CAD is under performing AUD , AUDCAD back up to near 1.02.. this considering oil has risen over 25%, plus interest rate expectations being favor of CAD relative to AUD going forward.
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
13 years ago
Apr 19, 2011 8:46
In Thread: EUR
@Machiavelli, well the second hr after that one is pointing to the exact opposite.. However, you can also interpret it as profit taking at that time, and not necessarily a solid long signal so soon after a 150 pip drop.
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
13 years ago
Apr 19, 2011 6:53
In Thread: EUR
jacek, for what its worth take a look at the EURUSD 1H candle some 16 hours ago. The one that opened and closed near its bottom 1.4270 ish.. range (1.4264 - 1.4349). I am assuming that this is when the warning on the US debt came out? Well if everyone panicked to buy Euros, or those who were short decided to cover their positions because of the bad US news, then some big money must have sold the Euro into this news upon such high volume?? The contrarian view is that the price will not go back to that level in the short term, likely heading down.
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