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804 Posts Total by "speculator":
22 Posts by member
SPECULATOR
(LONDON, United Kingdom)
782 Posts by Anonymous "speculator":
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speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 17, 2009 22:22
In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?
carclo,

notice cable aint reaching recent highs despite massive rally this week. however oil still quite a bit below recent peak. correlation better with oil .

what i am sensing is a sense of caution over the pound which of course has been reflected with the euro and dollar. it will not be long before a panic out of sterling becomes a real possibility especially as it is currently not fair value ($1.51/) and after summer this may happen regardless of equity markets.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 16, 2009 15:54
In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?
carclo whats your thoughts on todays IMF update on the UK economy? do you think other (positive) factors will move cable higher over the next 12 months?
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 16, 2009 10:00
In Thread: Falling Equities Still Key for Dollar
because the risk to the downside is expected to increase and investors feel the sustainability of gains despite rally this week will be short lived i suppose.
Speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 15, 2009 14:45
In Thread: When Will GOLD Hit $1,050?
correction: dollar weakness has provided direction to gold strength during the last few decades
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 15, 2009 14:12
In Thread: When Will GOLD Hit $1,050?
history shows that Gold has not been a good long term hedge against inflation. it has only been a good hedge since 2000. but dollar weakness has given direction to the trend most of the time.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 15, 2009 11:14
In Thread: When Will GOLD Hit $1,050?
also, equities likely to be range bound for many years implying heavy resistance on appetite to risk, inflation and dollar weakness. the dollar will have to depreciate quite a bit from here. even if the dollar becomes an alternative currency, the fed can reverse its credit expansion rapidly and do all sorts of things to prevent its collapse. so if you are betting for strong gold you are probably pro inflation or dollar weakness. both of these factors have not been a cause of gold strenth over the last few decades.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 15, 2009 10:14
In Thread: When Will GOLD Hit $1,050?
manipulation and deflation. there is still credit delation out there
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 15, 2009 10:14
In Thread: Falling Equities Still Key for Dollar
but GS predicted $200 oilin the summer!!
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 14, 2009 15:02
In Thread: Falling Equities Still Key for Dollar
yes TA is a tool traders use and IF all do use patterts etc this will help devise a trading pattern and trend by moving the market. But when the news (surprise) comes and changes perspectives...you can be caught as there is a rush to cover positions and potential losses. for example, how many traders could forecast the extent of collapse of the high yielders last year prior to Lehman? Ashraf did trading patterns strongly project the dollar mini bull early-mid 2008? I dont know maybe they did as im not even a chartist.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 14, 2009 14:26
In Thread: Falling Equities Still Key for Dollar
last 2 days is a prime example why charting cant always land you with profits. Surprises/news have changed the short term trend!!
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