Posts by "speculator"

ashraf saw your bloomberg clip today.

take it you are no heavily bullish on dollar for now given US fiscal deficit.

you seem to be less bullish than the banks in the short term (6 months) for a retest of Q1 dollar strength (6months)

yes and this recession will bring a lot of trading opportunities as we are bound to have a few more cycles here with plenty of overshooting and undershooting as the recession becomes increasingly difficult to trend and pricing of assets becomes a tough job. matters are made worse when there are so many investors predicting conflicting views.

the truth is we dont know what will exactly happen. what really upsets me is certain speculators betting on certain future events without taking into account other important issues and by just analysing on isolated factors.

one thing the longer term investor will need to get right is are we heading for general inflation or deflation - the timing is also very important. In this recession we are could quite easy get deflation and inflation in different assets all at the same time.

unemployment can quite easily reach 15% over the next couple for years in US and maybe UK.

I do see any wobbles around finding buyers of Dollar Government debt. It will be oversubsribed again particularly as risk aversion increases. i doubt the auction will have much impact on pairs. there are other key data that have impacted and may continue to reflect.

carclo, i would agree.

but circumstances are somewhat different pre-QE.

an issue that could bring a bout a retest are:

shock interest rates increases led by sell off in US government bonds by speculators and investors. this could happen if investors fear a collpase in dollar or sharply revise their inflation expectations.
we cannot judge inflation expectations by oil prices, as even if they sky rocket for speculative or fundamental reasons, consumers may allocate smaller budget for discretionary spending thus we may just get energy inflation and not broad increases. this is especially true if there is wage deflation and falling house prices.
i wont go in to details as to how this could completely mess up markets but it is rather obvious.

carclo, good trend line.

what is your view on equities?