EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
Deflationary Bitcoin صلابة بيتكوين
How bitcoin halving reduces bitcoin inflation below that of gold and how its "hardness" can beat every other asset & currency over time. Watch here.
كيف تنخفض نسبة التضخم في بيتكوين تحت نسبة تضخم الذهب و ما يعني "صلابة" بيتكوين كعملة او إرادة؟
Bitcoin versus Miners Performance
As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
View Hot-Chart..
Europe
European shares have opened higher after falling to their lowest close in nearly six weeks yesterday. There was no lead from Wall Street, which was closed for the Independence Day holiday. Bund futures fell to a session low on Tuesday in very thin trade as European equities made gains, curbing safe haven flows into German debt.
A contraction in German construction activity intensified in June as new orders dipped across the sector. The Markit construction index which is based on a survey of 200 construction companies fell to a seasonally adjusted 46.7 from 48.6 in May, staying below the 50 level, which separates growth from contraction for the second month running.
A measure of the residential sector showed its contraction also intensifying, with its sub-index registering 47.5 after 49.0 in May.
Commodities
Oil
Oil extended losses on Tuesday to four-week lows near $71 mainly due to a series of negative economic indicators over the past week which has lead to a lack of confidence about growth in energy use. Global services growth slowed in June, data showed on Monday, a further sign just days after weak manufacturing data that emerging and developed economies are set to cool off through the second half of the year.
The health of European banks is still in focus with continuing fears of double-dip recession also added to risk aversion in the market sending the dollar higher on Tuesday. Therefore commodities denominated in the U.S. currency are more expensive for buyers in the Asian market.
Gold
After recent drops in the price of the Gold, Tuesday saw a slight rise spurred by buying from jewelers in Asia. A firmer U.S. dollar with volatile stock markets has prompted speculators to sell to cover losses. Its anticipated dealers expected jewelers to snap up the metal at lower levels. Gold added 35 cents to $1,207.30 an ounce by 0535 GMT, having hit a high around $1,209. Gold slipped had fallen 3.4% last week, off the record high of $1,264.90 hit in June, as risk aversion linked to fears about the European sovereign debt crisis waned. The SNBs gold holdings at market value went from 39.1bn to 45bn showing an increase of 5.9bn.
US markets return later in the day, with little event-risk noted on the calendar to keep wider volatility contained.
Currency News
EUR/USD: Recovers From drop overnight Official buying sparked the overnight EUR/USD bounce, but only after downside stops were taken out. Drop below 1.2500 triggered various stops en-route to the 1.2479 intraday low. However, Asian sovereign names were soon spotted on the bid and this helped return the price to the comfort of the 1.25s. Option dealers are again quick to highlight the 1.2500 intraday strikes, which could offer the EUR support should there be a dip later today. In terms of resistance today supply is still touted towards the 1.26-area to keep the immediate topside limited.
GBP/USD: Strong start to Tuesday Cable up at levels just above 1.5200 level seen yesterday. Thin late Monday action saw the Pound slip again, this time to 1.5080 but as soon as the Asian market got going the Pound was driven back up through intraday buy stops at 1.5150 and on to early Tuesday London highs around 1.5192.
Broad based Dollar weakness at play while UK domestic news has been thin on the ground. A new MPC member confirmed by the Chancellors office and press chatter about a UK government contingency plan should BP collapse. The BP story, in the Times, will no doubt heighten speculation that the oil giant could be broken up or taken over.
GBP/USD continues to meet a head wind in the 1.5200 area but the underlying trend is with the Pound and it look like only a drop under 1.50 will scupper the bulls party. For this session key support is in the 1.5080 area but we also expect to see profit taking should 1.5140 give out. On the day a 1.5150 to 1.5220 range expected with upside risk
USD/JPY: Back Up To Asian Levels, Offers Still at 88.00- USD/JPY fell from an early high of 87.78 to as low as 87.42 this morning in Asia, partially on dovish comments from Dallas Fed president Fisher, a renowned hawk. Mr. Fisher said it was much too early to begin hiking interest rates and that the Fed could go either way in its debt purchases programs depending on the economy, moving towards a sell-off of accumulated assets or renewed purchases. This and JPY cross weakness were behind the
USD/JPY move lower. Bidding interest did resurface from the 87.40-50 area and held firm despite talk of stops sub-87.40. The market later pushed back up as the JPY crosses went bid alongside the Nikkei. USD/JPY has since recorded a fresh session high of 87.84. Offering interest remains ahead of 88.00 following the failure at 88.01 yesterday. Some stops are seen above 88.10 however and could come into focus if JPY crosses remain upbeat. USD/JPY currently trades 87.85/88.
AUD/USD:-Bounces After Neutral RBA Statement The RBA left the cash rate at 4.5% as expected and delivered a neutral statement thereafter. The RBA noted that international growth was uneven with very strong growth in Asia and Latin America compensating for uneven growth in the advanced countries. The RBA also noted that European budgetary constraint is making growth prospects for next year uncertain. The RBA also noted tightness in the funding markets but not on the scale seen in 2008.
The RBA remained relatively upbeat towards the domestic economy noting the strong terms of trade and the likelihood business investment will increase. The statement suggests the RBA will keep rates on hold unless there are significant changes in the global and domestic economies.
The AUD/USD has bounced from 0.8370 to 0.8390 after the RBA Statement didnt sound a particularly cautious note regarding the global economy and certainly did not signal a dovish shift in bias. The AUD/USD trades 0.8485/90.
Stock Market
Asia
Asian stocks reversed course and inched up on Tuesday taking heart from gains in the Chinese market led by property and bank stocks, while the Australian dollar dribbled higher after the central bank sounded cautiously optimistic on the economic outlook. Stock markets cheered gains in Shanghai, the worlds second-worst performer after Athens. The Shanghai market has lost 27 percent since the start of the year, after Beijing introduced a range of policies to cool the real estate fever.
Europe
European shares have opened higher after falling to their lowest close in nearly six weeks yesterday. There was no lead from Wall Street, which was closed for the Independence Day holiday. Bund futures fell to a session low on Tuesday in very thin trade as European equities made gains, curbing safe haven flows into German debt.
A contraction in German construction activity intensified in June as new orders dipped across the sector. The Markit construction index which is based on a survey of 200 construction companies fell to a seasonally adjusted 46.7 from 48.6 in May, staying below the 50 level, which separates growth
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nRLiZrkHEY&feature=player_embedded#!
Niall Ferguson of Harvard University spoke with Bloomberg Television on the subject of bond markets and the threat of a speculative bond attack against the United States.
0:35 Bond vigilantes are similar to those who were shorting invest banks a few years ago. They will keep climbing the quality of countries, similar to how they did with banks.
1:35 There is no example in history of any country growing out of this sort of debt position, except for Britain in the early 1800s, which had empire and industrial revolution on its side.
2:10 What is worrying is that there is no inflation, which is the easy way out of this sort of financial situation. Default now seems the only escape, and the U.S. may choose that path with unfunded liabilities like Social Security.
3:00 Nothing would scare the market more than if the government followed Paul Krugmans call for more stimulus.
The fate of the financial reform legislation in the Senate apparently depends on whether it contains a tax increase. The conferrees hastily re-convened to remove one tax objected to by Senator Brown. Okay. That was a good move. But lets not forget a couple of basics: (1) the imposition of massive new regulations on the banking and financial system will raise costs that may not be called taxes, but will have a similar effect. (2) the incidence of that cost-tax probably wont be what was intended. Banks, like other businesses, will likely pass most of the additional cost onto their customers.
http://taxesandbudget-blog.ncpa.org/
Solid buying has been seen on dips with real-money players steady buyers this afternoon. Still, EUR/USD trades with a heavy tone as Wall Street trades in the red after a 20 point rally in the S&P and a 175 point rally in the Dow disappear.
Bids are seen in the 1.2605/15 region with small stops below 1.2600. mainly around 1.2590. Major resistance at 1.2675 and 1.5230 (in Cable) have both survived sever tests from below today.
I guess I'll continue to buy on dips till 153 and then sell from there.