Posts by "stationdealer"

1170 next for gold

Much along I talked about AUDCAD making some gains today but still bearish. Following post from 28th Junehttp://ashraflaidi.com/forex-forum/user-posts/?u=ODA=&ibn=1&nn=Stationdealer&p=4
targets 0.8765 and then 0.8695

After we profited from May's sell off in EURCAD we went long again at 1.2485 &1.2505 which we orignally targeted for 127 and ended up taking profits 128 and then went long again at 1.2735 and 1.2796 pair now sits at 1.3355 which was the March to April's low and from where it made a significant S&R and then rebounded to 1.3750. 1.3750 is our next target as we believe the trend is still bullish.

EURAUD we also sold from 1.4308 & 1.4293 and were looking for a break of 1.3935 but soon became strikingly aware of Aussie's weakness. Took profits same day at 1.4360 and went long from there, that was liquidated today at 1.4985. And now again we look to short from 1.5005.

USDTRY upon recommendation we sold at 1.5820 and then at 1.5930 with target 1.5260 and 1.4970. I strongly feel that we will see more down side in this pair possibily even below to 1.4740.

Technically speaking, last week's developments were significant. DOW's close below the medium term rising trend line confirmed that whole medium term rally from 2009 low of 6470 has completed at 11258 already. The correction from there should extend to 38.2% retracement of 9428 next with prospect of reaching 61.8% retracement level of 8299 eventually. In any case, we shouldn't see DOW back above 11000 any time soon.

The sharp fall in crude oil suggests that medium term rise from 33.2 has completed at 87.15, ahead of fibonacci level at 90.24. Break of 69.50 support is still needed to confirm, though. In that case, we should see crude oil drops even deeper than stocks. 50% retracement level at around 60 should be a minimum target.

Dollar index's rally extended last week to as high as 85.25 before closing at 84.47. The acceleration affirmed our view that rise from 74.19 is resuming the long term up trend from 2008 low of 70.70. We'll stay bullish as long as 80.04 support holds and expect an eventual break of 2009 high of 89.62. The timing will depend on how fast the selling in stocks and crud oil intensifies.


Im going out for now trades will stay one sided US will rally, will be back in few hours.

Right you are Dodger 100%.
I'm only selling Euro now once it touches 127 and 153 for cable.
Good luck for the day guys, im setting off again, will be out most of the day
should be back by European close

It was a crazily volatile week and markets were clearly in risk averse mode. The -998 intraday fall in DOW might be exaggerated by "fat finger" or "computerized trading". But it's undeniable that the -628 pts fall in DOW was significant. Investors were in deep worry of contagion from the Greek fiscal crisis. It reached a point where something sensational was needed from authorities to restore confidence. ECB was supposed to do so last week but failed when policy makers didn't even did what the markets wanted, that was discussing about government bond purchases and selloff in risk assets intensified from there. We're talking about -5.7% fall in DOW, -6.4% fall in S&P 500, -6.2% fall in Nikkei, -5.9% fall in CRB commodities index and 12.8% fall in crude oil. Yen crosses are broadly lower with EUR/JPY down -6.82%, AUD\/JPY down -6.58%, GBP\/JPY down -5.72%, CHF\/JPY down -5.35% and CAD\/JPY down -5.10%. Meanwhile dollar index managed to accelerate recent rally and breached 85 level before closing at 84.47.

Facing the crisis with soaring yields in PIIGS government bonds and rising CDS, EU officials are meeting this weekend to work out details of a financial support mechanism, which include an emergency fund, to preview spreading of Greece's debt problem to other Eurozone members including the closely watched Portugal and Spain. EC President Jose Barroso expressed EU's determination to "defend the euro, whatever it takes." But he will not push the independent ECB to buy government bonds. EU is expected to finish the details within the weekend and make an announcement on Sunday. The announcement will be the signal most important events to watch for and markets' reactions on Monday will be crucial to decide the direction going forward, risk seeking or risk averse.

Another key developments to watch will be political negotiations in UK. The general election was inconclusive, as widely expected, with Conservative Party getting the largest number of seats but short of a majority. Nevertheless, sterling managed to have a mild bounce towards the end of the week on news of a coalition offer from Conservatives to Liberal Democrats and the two parties are set to meet on Sunday. Nevertheless, markets are still concerned that the hung government will limit UK's speed and decisiveness in cutting its huge deficits. And the picture would need to be cleared before rating agencies finally run out of patience and downgrade UK's credit ratings.

AUD/JPY Breaks Below Short Term Support At 73.50. The break below the bottom of the consolidation pattern at 73.50 opens the way for a move towards 72.65. The sharp fall from the big Fibo at 88.00 stalled initially at 71.90 from where it bounced in a 3-wave retracement. With the 100 and 200-day MAs providing a ceiling of sorts and with the shorter term MAs now turning lower, the risk would certainly seem to be to the downside.

The weekly USD/CHF chart shows a 5-wave rally off the .9915 low which is now retracing off the 1.1720 high. The 50% retracement was at 1.0820 which is approximately where the bullish trend line comes in, but we did not stop there either. Prior to NFP on Thursday a break below the 61.8% at 1.0610 has send the pair in a down trend. Next weekly support at 1.0470 where i will like to enter a short term reversal trade for a possible target of 1.0960.

As you no doubt are aware, I am long gold and am happy to stay that way as Im using it as a pure hedge but a quick look at the charts shows a steep upward trendline which could easily retrace to $1000/oz or below without endangering the uptrend. The major upmove began in 2005 from around $400 and the most recent upmove began in 2008 from around $700. If an interim top were to form and this last $565 up-leg were to retrace the minimum 38%, then that would take prices back towards $1050 and the up-trend would still be in total control. Thats the problem with trying to buy in a market which is already totally overbought, although I still managed to hold two position from above 1250. Im not at all tempted to try and pick a top but will stick with my buy-big-dips strategy. Still I have decided to sell in some lots for long term from 1228 and above as at the moment I'm targeting 1228-29.

We are getting back toward the 1.07/1.08 area where China has been a CAD buyer on past rallies, for what its worthI currently hold USDCAD from 1.0189, 1.0287, and from 1.0325 & 1.0444. I seek targets at 1.0730 and 1.0850.

USDJPY is where we continue to take some losses most buying done around 89 level we are now hedged from our stop level around 88.60. But for a short I continue to look bearish at this pair. There's no need to rush your trades as yet, as a reversal in Yen will give excellent opportunity in crosses. CADJPY is another good one to watch.

AUDCAD reversing fast today in the Asian session as if it was on a mission to

Dodger you know that only entails one thing and one thing alone a collapsing Chinese economy, its a must readhttp://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aA9Y5VxWh9lw&pos=4

It seems that traders of both ilks, bulls and bears, are lacking commitment to the cause and are unwilling to sit on positions for any length of time. This is typical of the type of trading we usually get in July and August. The falls of this morning have been reversed and both the EUR/USD and the AUD/USD are putting in session highs as we approah the London open. Almost an exact carbon copy of yesterdays trade.