Posts by "stationdealer"

With No New News, EUR/USD Just Seems To Be Following Stocks

Not going anywhere fast at the moment. EUR/USD sits at 1.2375, exactly where it was about 4 hours ago, going nowhere fast at the start of the new week. The pairing just seems to be following the gyrations of European stocks which are back in positive territory as I type this.

Sell orders noted up at 1.2400, stops through 1.2340. Maybe 1.2340-1.2400 can hold things until North America gets in and I can go fishing.

Cable sits at 1.5055, pretty much where it closed out Friday in North America. There is talk in the market that a UK clearer needs to buy cable today for dividend payment purposes. Effect is not thought likely to be overly large, but may well be helping underpin the pairing in recent trade.

For Those With Interest In AUD/USD, Just a Reading

Dow Jones piece. Westpac recommending selling AUD/USD in high .8700s/low. 8800s region, represents good risk reward at start of Q3.

Downside target .8400, stop just above .8900, which covers 61.8% retracement level of the high .9300 to .8000 downside move.

Westpac say market is not recognising the potential for a further slowing in Chinese data momentum over the next month.



No easy choices - Hurt now or hurt later?
I wrote before about an analytical framework for the deficit hawks. Economists at the BIS recently wrote a report the likely trajectory of government spending and the kind of reductions and actions that are required to bring deficits under control.

The Centre for Economic Policy Research recently released a discussion piece on the deficit reduction question and put the dilemma into perspective. The Economist recently had an article that explained the deficit conundrum more simply:

Debt is as powerful a drug as alcohol and nicotine. In boom times Western consumers used it to enhance their lifestyles, companies borrowed to expand their businesses and investors employed debt to enhance their returns. For as long as the boom lasted, Mr Micawbers famous injunction appeared to be wrong: when annual expenditure exceeded income, the result was happiness, not misery.

Now comes the hangover. Its a question of whether we want to hurt now or hurt later. There are no good choices. This is only a slight exaggeration but politicians who choose an effective hurt now option, as per the BIS analysis, could go down in history as the economic equivalent of the Pol Pot regime. The hurt later school, by contrast, are choosing the financial equivalent of releasing a latent Ebola virus into their population, to be manifested at some time in the future.


The Austerity Dilemma

As the G20 meeting get under way in Toronto, it is evident that not all is well and the posturing began long before the summit.

Despite the soothing offical pronouncements, it is evident that the US position is a source of division at the G20 meetings. In Europe, the cult of austerity has caught fire. The UK has passed a high profile austerity budget (see analysis here) and so has Germany. Nevertheless, the G20 remains divided. On this side of the Atlantic, US officials are urging G20 to avoid growth dampening budget cuts.

What gives?

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-forum/thread/?n=1561&t=h

Pipster we already been selling Aussie, and gave you a sell up Aussie alert mins before the Kevin Rudd announcement was made public on TV. As soon as i saw newswire break the story, I said start selling. I was in at 8722, plus my team was already in from 8845.

As expect we are going to see black box trading all day so its pointless for me to do anything today, i already have enough positions in hand. Aussie is right now under pressure through hedge funds, they have a strategy called drill, and who know when it will be lifted well for now i can sure for all i know that the level pushed for is 8480/60 and possibly 8390.

Although on the other hand we saw a squeeze in Euro and volumes coming out of cable and going into EUROGBP and yesterday it was as if all of America left everything else and went into commodities. So with computerized trading on till the US session and traders still unsure where to put their next trades, so emphatically Euro has being position higher so that the risk of down wards slide, does not give investor to start selling stock at the same time. And that the weekly pivot on last day trading may automatically pull price again higher. Chances of higher risk aversion will be left in balance over the weekend for Mondays open and next weeks all important NFP.

This in mind yesterday was the sole reason I gave a sell indication on GBP and Euro, subsequently a weaker JPY in case dollar holds swap in yen for the week.

YES DAN!!!

it is cuz now you've had the breakout trough 7835, which was eyed from 7985 failure to up side. price moved up since then but it will break in a day or so next level 7760. I refer it to as trade of the day cuz this was the only trend continuation everything else in the market last 2 3 days been 50/50. Plus its got barrier protection at 90, so hardly a case to stay long in there but shorts make sense.



And yes what about CAD? read about it under CAD topics

Xaron in a post just mentioned something about a break out, like the kind of one we saw yesterday on the down side at below 14600. Market is not all that risk averse at the moment but traders are still up sure allot of seller in Euro below 12250, all day we saw Euro being sold on rallies. That suggests either cash is wait to see if there's any clear demand up top above 12400 or rally will seize.

So for sterling anywhere near 150 above or below will be a good sell considering market can take it till 14400 till Jun NFP announcement. And if Euro starts to decline from here. 149 if where it was suppose to be this week. It met the price (Sapce) with time, so now price will squeeze a little. You catch my drift.

anyone buying oil here?

then thats going to turn into great big irani and german jew orgy