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Posts by "stationdealer"
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Posts by Anonymous "stationdealer":
With its May 0610 low at 0.8704 broken on Tuesday and the 0.8576 level, its 2010 low and the 0.8500 level violated in todays trading, risk of further weakness remains towards its Sept 0209 low at 0.8238. This break now confirms a top and portends further weakness. Below the 0.8238 will expose the 0.8000 level, its big psycho level. Alternatively, the pair will have to break and close above the 0.8500/0.8576 level to clear the way for a recovery towards the 0.8704 level followed by the 0.9077 level, its May 1010 high. As can be seen from the chart, AUDUSD has a lot of overhead resistance to overcome if any corrective recovery is staged. All in all, having ended its corrective recovery on Tuesday and weakened through the 0.8576/0.8500 levels today, further risk is likely towards and below the 0.8238 level.
There you go US job start to falter as i said couple of weeks ago that i dint believe the employment number coming out of US. Allot of traders today were waiting for these numbers are not left deteriorated thinking that a lower number is what would start euro sell-off and stop equities from falling.
We will be looking out for further weakness in the jobs market
Speaking to the country's lower house of parliament in a speech on the euro rescue plan, Merkel said "the euro is at risk" and the current situation is Europe's "biggest test" in decades.
"If we don't avert this danger then the consequences for Europe are inevitable," Merkel said. "Because if the euro is failing, than Europe is failing."
Germany's lower house of parliament is expected to vote May 21 on the country's contribution of up to EUR147.6 billion to a massive EUR750 billion bailout by European Union countries and the International Monetary Fund for European countries on the verge of defaulting on their debt.
Merkel also defended Germany's ban on so-called naked short-selling of shares in 10 leading German financial institutions and in euro government bonds, that was introduced Tuesday at midnight.
"This will all remain in place until other rules [other than those in Germany] are established on a European level," Merkel said.
The finance ministry has said that additional bans on naked short selling are planned, in addition to those that started midnight Tuesday. They will include a total ban on naked short selling of all German shares, stock derivatives, derivatives related to euro-zone government bonds, as well as euro-currency derivatives that "don't have a role in hedging against currency risks."
Naked short selling is the shorting of financial instruments but differs from conventional short selling as the instruments sold aren't borrowed in advance. The practice came under fire as Greece's struggle to refinance its debt escalated into a crisis across southern euro-zone nations. Many euro-zone governments have said that transactions such as credit default swaps--a type of default insurance--artificially inflated Greece's funding costs.
Merkel also said that Germany will campaign in Europe and globally for the financial sector to help pay for the costs caused by the recent crisis, saying "we need a taxation of financial markets."
Germany will lobby for an international financial transaction tax or a financial activities tax. If there is no global deal on an international level, then a European approach should be considered, Merkel said.
In her speech, Merkel also defended the European Central Bank's independence and said that despite recent action taken to rescue the euro, she has no doubt that the bank will stick to its top priority of securing price stability.
"Securing price stability is and remains a top priority for the ECB," she said.
She also said that a far-reaching reform of the European Union's Stability and Growth Pact is needed, which includes tougher controls of budget policies and setting up orderly insolvency procedures for euro-zone member states.
She also said that countries violating budget rules would risk losing their voting rights temporarily and could be refused money from the EU's structural fund.
can we have some people in charge instead of monkeys
eurchf still holding its 140 barrier, i swing the question to you Ashraf, what's next on SNB's list of measures. I dont see anyone else making the right moves other then them.
Beijing has been pretty quiet on the declining euro, and with good reason.
Theres been some chatter in markets that central banks, including the big names in Asia, are starting to fret about the euros decline, and even offloading some holdings.
We may never know for sure. But theres certainly no great impetus for the Peoples Bank of Chinaour champion of reserve diversification in Asiato rush euros onto the market.
Not that long ago China was warning the U.S. about a deterioration in the U.S. dollar, reminding the world it had a vested interest in the dollars value via its massive holdings of U.S. government debt.
The greenbacks recovery courtesy of the euros fall has eased those concerns. China is sitting prettier on its U.S. assets.
And while theres speculation the PBOC was a buyer of euros at the peak, it doesnt naturally follow that it would be selling into the declines.
European finance ministers are sounding concerned about the euro, but the European Central Bank has been much less vocal. The PBOC would probably fall into the sanguine camp alongside the ECB.
Finance ministers are much more minute-to-minute. They have exporters on their backs and manufacturers at the front door to worry about.
Central banks tend to be less concerned about daily currency wobbles, especially when it comes to their reserve accumulation. They will go into the markets to smooth things out, but for reserve strategy they look past the short term.
China is sticking with its plan to shift some new reserves into assets aside from the dollar, and the euro would make up a fair portion of that investment basket. And as long as the PBOC remains confident the euro is not going to collapse, and given its stated aim of limiting its reliance on the dollar, it may even be tempted to pick up euros on a cheaper basis.
Chinas central view is probably that the U.S. dollar is due for a long-term structural decline. Over time, fewer trades will be done in the greenback. Its in Chinas interest to keep euros on its books, and add to them as and when it can.
Monty when good ol' Jim said 121, 120 figure Euro closed on 12327 on 16th may, and over the weekend when he made those comments euro was basically expected to open lower. so what i would take from his words is that he see's euro bottoming out at these levels. And Kiwi's and Aussie's will raise rates again into the second quarter, a good indicator for that will be a declining trade balance figures.
Cat Euro i see 127 end of this week while (dont forget options & futures expiry up soon. So the sellers sentiment would like an other go again at it in the new contracts) Medium term i see it back 133 to 135 probably around early as of august. long term back above 144. Meanwhile i still expect some side ways waves to continue.
Pound i know end of this year will be back above 160, long term higher rate argument is suggestive
as we have Olympics in 2012 so it makes sense to raise sterling value higher. Medium term i see it 15050 to 15350. short term we do not need to fear GBP as volatile pound will continue to give ample opportunities along with the side lining aussie and euro.
Aussie on the other hand is contrary to dollar, while dollar index shows signs of being range bound traded value btw 83 - 87 i would favour shorts on much of aussie rallies with short term bullish rallies may likely appear. For now I do see aussie headed towards 9030/40 pior to 4th June's NFP figures.
Aussie yen would remain preferred trade in-case RBA decides to continue raising rates for 2010.
However the that's true xaron while Fed may keep rates lower for this year, ECB and BOE may likely raise interests rates to hinder the rise of inflation. All those people who right now are thinking well the commodities are down, rates are low there will be no risk in the coming months and years frankly their all wrong. Politicization has already begun in EU. Inflation will still be a concern, wage driven inflationary risk may arise, commodities will rise again, while unemployment will remain higher much of this years specially in the US. Regulation overall is the next risk people should look out for, fun's over boy. Greece will confirm their payments tomorrow 19th may and euro will continue to rise until next week.
Last week i talked about the true contrarin Jim O'neil of GS to come out and give his veiws on the EUro situation guarantees in an interview on bloomberg that the Euro will not fall below 120.
Frankly i dont need to know anything more, Jim has spoken people wakey wakey stop beliving in rumours and do what needed to be done. I've already liquidated all my shorts and now in long on euro, pound, kiwi, aussie and oil
There are three categories of traders in the report as defined by the CFTC.
Non-Commercial (Large Speculators)
These large speculators are mainly hedge funds, banks etc who trade currency futures just for speculation.
Commercial (Hedgers, Exporters, Importers)
These are people who use the futures contracts for hedging purposes, and these commercial participants are generally exporters and importers who may use the commodity or currency futures markets to take a position that will reduce the risk of financial loss in their assets due to a change in price.
Non-Reportable (Small Traders)
They are small speculators like retail traders
Things to Note:
- In currency futures, the convention is to quote the foreign currency directly against the US dollar. For example, the Swiss franc is quoted versus the US dollar in futures, unlike the USD/CHF notation in the spot forex market.
- It is more important to note whether the large speculators are net long or short in specific commodities or currencies. Sometimes, moves can also be influenced by small traders closing their losing positions. Knowing whether large speculators have been net long or short a few days ago only indicates the positioning in retrospect. It is more useful to compare the latest net positioning with that from the past few weeks or months.