Posts by "the oracle"

I guess Ashraf got it wrong again on being EUR/USD bullish, expecting it to touch 1.31 from 1.303 ?

I longed EUR/USD and has just been stopped out.

IMHO, EUR/USD has been trading very technically. EUR/USD started pulling back once it touched 1.303. Broke the 100/200 MAs on the 30-min chart, and stayed under them. Formed a broad double top on the 30 min chart, with the tops below the 100/200 days MAs, before dropping again by a proportional amount during European hours as the Portugal debt auction did poorly. Started a rising pennant as US opens, possibly on expectation of USD-negative comments by Ben. Dropped like a stone as continuation of upside-down flag pattern when Ben's testimony came out. As I write, it is touching pivot point S2 (1.2735), the floor of an upwards sloping channel. If this floor holds, the price action over the next day or two will be upwards. If the floor does not hold, EUR/USD may fall further, and this is likely to be the case until Friday as risk-off sentiment prevails.

In retrospect, when EUR/USD broke its 100/200 days MAs on the 30 min chart, the bullish call was over. I was wrong to hold my long positions.

The mistakes I made:

1/ I listened & believed in what Ashraf wrote without too many questions. There was this webinar on Sunday in which he pushed the expectation of bullish EUR/USD price action.
2/ I did not listen to my charts.
3/ I moved my stops when the price action is against me because I believed what Ashraf said was credible and hoped the market will come back.
4/ I hoped.
5/ My positions were against the market price action.

It's an expensive lesson and I expect myself to learn from it.

I do notice in Ashraf's commentary and analysis, he does not state stop-lose levels where his views and opinions will be invalidated if these levels are breached. Such practice is good risk management, and is all the more important for retail clients.

I also notice that Ashraf tweets when his views are correct and his profit targets are reached. However, he is silent when his views are wrong. There no tweet from Ashraf since Ben's testimony and all the red ink flashing on my screen. A profit target hit after the market has gone 200/300 pips in the other direction should not be considered a success and is not acceptable under a good risk management framework.