Posts by "wm"

Asad,
What are the fundamentals that you feel will cause oil to 'explode'?
Do you have a target price in mind?
Some analysts feel the S&P will not hit it's final top until late May. That should support oil as well.
$100 is really not that far away. Low 90's for sure given any type of exuberance.

Thanks.

Asad,

Any attack by the U.S. or Israel while these demonstrations are going on, or within the next month or so, would help the Iran government immensely. The propaganda value they would gain by portraying the anti-government demonstrators as traitors would be immense. Iranians are proudly nationalistic and the anti's demonstrations would cease. Tyranny would win out.

Better to let this latest round of demonstrations peter out on their own, with massive government brutality as we are witnessing, putting the government in a worse geo-political position. Even the Russians and the Chinese could not publicly support the Iranian government's actions (privately yes).

Then an attack, if it were to come, would seem a little more justified.

I think you are correct that oil would spike much higher on news of an attack. In the meantime, how does one trade oil with fundamentals set aside and an 'imminent' attack that may not come for quite some time?

Igor,

I agree with your viewpoint about China. Dubai was shrugged off too easily and there may be a few more mini-Dubai's to come, which will also most likely be smoothed over.

If/when China is exposed as a paper dragon and the Bulls in the China shop start to stampede for the exit ... that could be the catalyst to really take things down. Unfortunately.

Commodities would be crushed. Asad will buy two yachts.

I havn't a clue where gold would be during all this or at year end.

Raulin, Gunjack & Ashraf,

Oil does seem to retreat everytime from the downward trendline (lower highs), but it is hard to ignore the bullish flag. Gold had a similar bull flag and look what happened. Shorting might be scary.

Any thoughts?

Ashraf,

As you have been mentioning, today oil once again failed to regain 80.50. If there is a dollar rally and subsequent sell-off in the market and commodities (minor or otherwise), do you have a short-term downside target for Crude Oil?

Thanks.