Posts by "wm"

Asad,
What are the fundamentals that you feel will cause oil to 'explode'?
Do you have a target price in mind?
Some analysts feel the S&P will not hit it's final top until late May. That should support oil as well.
$100 is really not that far away. Low 90's for sure given any type of exuberance.

Thanks.

@montmorency,
After a full year of relentless move upwards, the Market now has to make a major decision. The close on Friday at S&P 1138 was 88 6% retracement of the drop from the Jan. 19th high to the Feb. 5th low. A 100% retracement would naturally be to 1150. Only 12 pts. away or 100 DOW pts. Easily done. Possible scenarios:

1). Market breaks above 1150 and moves to 1200. This could be done s l o w l y over a few weeks or quickly over a few days.
2). Market enters a controlled (by the PPT of course) correction down to ~1075. The chart of the past few weeks shows the S&P in an 'expanding megaphone' pattern. (higher highs, lower lows, this is bearish). 1150 is at the top boundary, 1075 would bring it down to the bottom boundary. Then up and down sideways for quite awhile. (See a chart, if you can, of 2003 S&P for comparison of the rise from last March).
3). 'Cascading Fall'; The PPT loses control and the market does not rebound from 1075 and continues down to 1000. In market declines, regular bounces occur with new money coming in at perceived support levels and short covering. The PPT has done a masterful job at squeezing shorts out of the market day by day during the rise. Every afternoon shorts are squeezed as well as every Monday. With a much reduced level of shorts to support rebounds, bounces could be weak and lead to accelerated decline.

so, if,

1). (undesirable); Slow agony continues for those here who are shorting. Most likely no large drop in commodities if the market does not sell off yet.
2). (most likely); Nimble money to be made in the drop to 1075 and sideways up and down action thereafter.
3). (le deluge); PPT loses control and market cascades. Difficult to find levels for buying or selling.

Early next week should be interesting.

One confused view.

Asad,

Any attack by the U.S. or Israel while these demonstrations are going on, or within the next month or so, would help the Iran government immensely. The propaganda value they would gain by portraying the anti-government demonstrators as traitors would be immense. Iranians are proudly nationalistic and the anti's demonstrations would cease. Tyranny would win out.

Better to let this latest round of demonstrations peter out on their own, with massive government brutality as we are witnessing, putting the government in a worse geo-political position. Even the Russians and the Chinese could not publicly support the Iranian government's actions (privately yes).

Then an attack, if it were to come, would seem a little more justified.

I think you are correct that oil would spike much higher on news of an attack. In the meantime, how does one trade oil with fundamentals set aside and an 'imminent' attack that may not come for quite some time?

Ashraf,

Crude Oil does seem to be holding up well with this $US strength.
If the $US dollar does pull back again, would you anticipate another substantial rise in Crude?
Looking at the $75 level again as resistance?

Thanks.

Ashraf,
Do you have a time frame in mind for Crude Oil to possibly test 70?
Before Xmas or into the New Year?

Thanks.