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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:
EUR
Discuss EUR in this thread
whether astrology, horoscope, or coin flipping.... as long as it works...
anything would have a much higher success rate than your calls... so who's the clown now? :)
for european broker
So the Portugal problems have arose as expected, and a bailout now looks more a question of when than if. Meanwhile Merkel's hands are tied until German elections, as opposition grows to periphery bailouts, so this could be very bad timing to need a bailout.
In both Greece and Ireland, the run up to bailout was accompanied by big falls in the Euro. But are markets now more content with the bailout process having gone through it twice, and will Trichet's indications of a rate hike keep them on the Euro's side?
Yet no crisis is exactly the same, and without an elected government in power, the bailout of Portugal could be very complicated if they do not have a mandate to organise an IMF/EU bailout.
Meanwhile, opposition is growing to the FED's money printing policies, with one member calling it unacceptable. Markets still expect the Bernanke put to come in whenever they trend down, but what if this cycle is broken? Equities will fall and the dollar will rise.
I'm getting the sense now that the euro has had its rally, and will start downtrending from here into the summer.
PBOC makes use of chart astrology based on Chinese horoscope. We are in the Chinese year of the clown.
And while questions arise whether the EU/IMF would negotiate a bailout with a temporary govt, we GO STRAIGHT TO THE CHARTS http://chart.ly/nrjnhgp and look at EURCAD (daily) and EURGBP (4hr) for a gradually floundering picture for the single currency. EURCADs double failure at 1.3970 is likely to lead towards 1.3650 and 1.3550s as long as oil prices remain boosted by minimal MidEast/Nth Africa uncertainty, with only a break (close) above 1.40 to call a break out. EURGBP chart is 4hr outlook, backing earlier IMTs and latest HotChart.
Ashraf
http://chart.ly/nrjnhgp
Ashraf
holdin usd/chf shts from 9045
resume euro sh below 4040..long abv 4136