EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
Friday's $2431 high in gold consisted of a 21% rise from the Feb 14th low. Such percentage extensions from key lows or/and technical levels such as the 200-DMA, could flag crucial opportunities for partial/full profit-taking. Watch here.
Bitcoin versus Miners Performance
As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
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BANK OF CANADA POLICY REPORT (14:30 GMT) should offer more clarity for its near-term bias. Traders saw little indication the BOC is on the verge of resuming its policy tightening, with key language on stimulus reduction to be "carefully considered" restated verbatim along with more apparent indication of discomfort directed at the strong CAD.
By GG - AshrafLaidi.com Staff
Ashraf
But time for caution.. JP Morgan will announce results tomorrow morning which could lift markets for the day (Risk positive, USD negative?), but countering that Obama is supposed to talk about a deficit reduction plan which could impact markets too, and be dollar positive for a change?
BANK OF CANADA RATE DECISION marks the key economic event of the early New York session. Last time, the BoC upgraded its assessment of domestic economy from "recovery proceeding broadly as anticipated" to "proceeding slightly faster than anticipated." Canadian central bank was more upbeat on consumption and business investment, but also attributed headwinds in the export sector to the strength of CAD. Even though the prior Conservative ruling party appears to have regained control headed into the national elections, political turmoil and budget uncertainty are likely to keep BOC at 1.00%.
DESPITE A HEFTY 30% CHANCE OF A 25b-HIKE priced in the OIS market, a rate hike would indeed be surprising at this juncture. If Canadian central bank is truly concerned about the strength of CAD relative to USD, it would be wise to wait on the late-April FOMC decision to get some more clarity on the future of QE2 - recall that there is no Fed meeting in May. BOC last assessment on inflation was also rather lukewarm, suggesting expectations moved up but remain concentrated within the target control range. USDCAD spike topped out at the 4-week trendline resistance of 09620s. In the event that risk aversion deepens alongside the an unchanged decision may likely lift towards 09690s. In the unlikely event of rate hike, USDCAD seen at 0.9490s, but we could see broader CAD strength vs EUR & AUD.
By GG of AshrafLaidi.com
Ashraf
CAD still rides on the back of higher oil despite USDCAD aiming to find support at 0.9570. Yet, we remain well above the all-time lows of 0.9060 from 4 yrs ago. Fresh 30-month highs for both US crude & Brent, while silver hits the $40 mark, and gold holds above $1,460. USDX HITS 16-mnth lows, nearing 75.00 as the US budget saga & looming gvt shutdown weighs on the currency.
By KM - AshrafLaidi.com Staff.
Ashraf
AUD/USD price action since the employment report has been treacherous. The pair initially rallied 50 pips to 1.0480 but quickly gave up half the gains. Early in North American trading the pair pushed to a record 1.0507 but quickly retreated back to 1.0411 then edged up to 1.0470. Medium and long term signals are pointing to further gains but whippy trading around a news event like the jobs report often signals a short-term top.
THE COMMODITY RALLY continues with gold and oil hitting fresh highs on Thursday. The Middle East remains a key driver of resources but other sources of recent strength include: 1) the spiraling costs of rebuilding in Japan 2) Continued easy money from the Fed 3) renewed signs of growth in emerging markets, especially China. The street is growing more bullish on China on hopes it can bring inflation under control and speculation that it is nearing the end of its rate hike cycle. These calls may be premature but a soft landing in China is the most compelling reason to buy commodities, CAD and AUD.
Ashraf