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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:

EUR

Discuss EUR in this thread
 
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Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
12 years ago
Feb 6, 2012 9:31
china 2011-2015 GDP 7%

and rumour about chinese ease by narrow banking saving-lending gaps (which ordered by government). this is a fresh rumour, only weeks old.
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
12 years ago
Feb 5, 2012 16:27
imho, in this or next month i will prepare to short. for long term, i guess obama will successful re-elect.
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
12 years ago
Feb 5, 2012 9:50
I Think that the "too good to be true" NFP figures could bolster up Obama especially becuase the unemployment rate of afro-Americans and hispanics fell ( however the full time jobs decreased so its all part time jobs than make the recent NFP). Given that and the silly and ridiculous performance of the rep candidates I would rather expect a down stock market in this election year. Further black swan could come up any time e.g. Israel attacks Iran unsuccessfully . Imo what my robot already does trend following scalping with at least 30 pips
is what can do but long term predictions...can turn out costly.
I have been betting on falling VIX with big profit 300% BUT...VIX falls further. There is a very reliable rule saying that : rising index falling VIX falling volume : GO SHORT!!
All recent rallies in DJIA had trade volume below average. But not low enough yet. Thus I expect Facebook IPO is an example of smart money sells the top....
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
12 years ago
Feb 5, 2012 0:59
It certainly would explain the divergence in NYSE breadth to SPX from mid december to last wednesday 1st january when the divergence resolved to the upside. Obviously we will likely see this condition repeating if risk-on continues.
http://chart.ly/ucpue2g
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
12 years ago
Feb 5, 2012 0:49
"One of the fallouts of the crisis of the past 3-4 years is a shortening of investors time horizon (stat of the day: did you know that the average holding period for US equities is now 22 seconds?7). Long term investors have become an endangered species and the effect on markets is there for everyone to see. I doubt this will change any time soon but, for now, it is risk on".
http://www.arpllp.com/core_files/The_Absolute_Return_Letter_0212%282%29.pdf
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
12 years ago
Feb 4, 2012 11:44
@ gimme, I believe that Ashraf explained your Q in recent IMT. In fact Ashraf mentioned a similar scenario could develop for the usd some months ago as a general alert. I might be an ole boy but still have a good memory :-)

My EW voodoo for the DX and the usdchf looks for lower levels in what I read to be a corrective move down. However nothing ever goes down in a straight line (except perhaps silver following its parabolic climb last year).

Being in an american re-election year stocks have almost always historically travelled north so I guess we can generally expect good news from US eco stats. I wonder how that always happens, can't imagine they would manipulate the #'s. Perhaps this time will be different but the new year is certainly starting off with a bang.
givemethebill
Japan
Posts: 316
12 years ago
Feb 3, 2012 15:56
hello traders..
I've been away from trading desk to finish personal stuff lately. Glad to login to forum. What's happening with good jobless rate = risk off. Is this turning point for USD?
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
12 years ago
Feb 3, 2012 14:07
NFP spoiled it limit not hit
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
12 years ago
Feb 3, 2012 10:30
EURUSD short limit 132 tp 305 sl 324
jacek
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 2579
12 years ago
Feb 2, 2012 21:53
g'day.. nice charts subz, thx..

agree.. 1.3080 held so far.. but prefer test of lower boundery at this stage.. even sub 1.3000 for 1.2000 needs to get tested in EURCHF and 8200 in EURGBP..
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