EUR

I think we shall see QE's across nations for some years yet. This is the new norm. Low gowth or negative growth, jobless recoveries, lots of QE. Greece may be the first to reach ground zero if they revert back to drachma and then build on their tourism.

If the EU is in W.2:C up the W.3:C down should be pretty dramatic and perhaps align with Grexit and all the bank turmoil that will create. Followed by a period of comparitive calm for W.4:C up and then a final move down in W.5:C while ezone bring together their new fiscal governance (or abandon the common currency). Of course the other side of the eurusd trade is gonna focus on the US deficit.

I think one could pose several counts for monthly and weekly, none of which could be considered the primary high probability outcome. Referring to monthly I favour the ABC 3-3-5 corrective scenario with A completed at June 2010 low, B completed at May 2011 high and C still in progress. The C is a nightmare to analyse on smaller timeframes but a minimum symmetry target would come in at 1.0775 and possibly extend to 0.9640 which would be more attractive to test the parity level along the way.

Its possible the C leg down starting from the May 2011 high has only completed 1:C down with 2:C now in progress. This count would increase the possibility for an ending at the lower target level around parity to 0.9640.

This is a classic case of too many possible counts to be useful. We could all make a case for our particular fundamental bias and bend some of Elliott's rules to fit our bias. Elliott would say "I told you not to look at paired assets with my work".

I not understanding you George, is your higher count long term bullish on EUR and when do you anticipate the Grexit event will occur ?

so modest skipper