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Oil Weakness May Intensify
Oil sluggishness may risk turning into a faster selloff, especially as the fuel fails to gain on recent USD losses.
P.S. Anything not demand-driven must definitely be superfluous...
Gunjack,
You'll be surprised that demand/supply DOES and IS still playing a part. If not, then why is NG not following oil's direction?
It's pretty discouraging at times when everyone is saying that oil is bullish...and me alone...like an idiot is talking about fundamentals
So that is 3 different posts from you where you have only spoken about demand/BASIC FUNDAMENTALS....You never spoke about external monetary factors and when other posters mentioned it you brushed it off...HAHAHA!!!
Now when you were about 300pips down you claim to have doubled up on that loss and now triumphantly claim to have made a fortune again...And please don't claim effective risk mgt as no risk manager would allow anyone to trade like this.
Not sure how BNP Paribas vindicated you as their point is that Oil, Gold and Equities are becoming a speculative play being effected by cheap cash. Didn't read them saying go short oil. Also from previous posts you were arguing that Oil is being effected by supply and demand and nothing to do with external monetary policy
Mate...it hapened RIGHT in front of YOUR eyes! I had opened a short at 76 a couple of days back...opened another at 79 yesterday...and VIOLA - oil currently stands within the 76 range! So let's start talking from here... :)
And oh, I felt sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo good when you added...
"oil prices have disconnected from physical reality, adding that until unconventional monetary policy is removed from the table the market can expect crude futures to trade as an investment class rather than a consumption asset."
Starting from Ashraf down to the newest newbie on the Forum knows that i've been SCREAMING this for MONTHS now...that oil's priced incorrectly (& should be in 60s)...but every now & then I'm being 'told' (Ashraf excluded) that I should stop worrying & get on w/ the trend!
But no. I have firmly stood by my beliefs that if left on its own, oil should, and will, retreat towards 70s. And EVERY time I've made money - today included - has been the time I've stuck to this belief. And now, BNP Paribas has vindicated me.
Let's leave the argument aside & make money - oil WILL tread towards 70...but don't know if you want to join in...
Asad
P.S. NZ, Fastpips...your points are taken and will definitely form a part of my strategy...
kidwai, do you read my IMTs and twets. it failed at 1.6735 but may retry again. still looking bearish to me. aussie not expected to break above 0.9330
Ashraf
Thanks.
Best Regards.
Ashraf