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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Jan 19, 2010 15:19
Comments: 147
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Euro's Dead Cross

EURUSD's downtrend is now confirmed after its 50-day MA has fallen below its 100-day MA, strengthening the bearish technical signal with an already deteriorating fundamental foundation.
 
jamshed
Pakistan
Posts: 57
15 years ago
Jan 20, 2010 20:27

EURUSD is now hovering around 1.41. I am still long Euro. :-)

On a fundamental basis, US economy and Eurozone should also catch up in the next couple of quarters.
One major difference from summer 2008 is that US economy was suffering and Eurozone economy went south resulting in ECB rate cuts and Euro losses. In the current environment, the US economy is improving the and the Eurozone is catching up. this is similar to 2005 Euro losses and eventual Euro recovery.

By mid summer, US and Eurozone recovery should firm up resulting in Euro gains towards 1.5+.

The current sovereign debt issues related to Greece etc are transitionary. Consider this - ECB, Fed, BoE have pumped trillions in the market. and how much greek debt is due this year? 52 billion? thats it? Even a case like Iceland has been resolved, Greece should not be a big issue.
Greek debt is in Euros - not like South american debt crisis of the eighties or Russian default of the nineties. The debt is in local currency and the current maturity is not not so significant. However, bad mounthing the euro zone issues is actually beneficial to germany / france etc as it is leading to a weaker euro - so there is much talk about it.

So, short term, I give up - Euro is in a dead cross and all that, but on a fundamental and cyclical recovery basis, Euro will regain 1.50 within next few months.

happy trading,
j
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
15 years ago
Jan 20, 2010 20:22
(Like Rob, my vote on Twitter was also with a different nickname to the one used here (this one is common enough to have been taken already in what is presumably a huge user population, though I didn't check) in case you thought I didn't vote - I definitely did :-) )
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Jan 20, 2010 20:17
Since Jan 1 - USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and EUR/USD. I was about to short Gold at 1122 this morning until it fell from there. I'm thinking of going for it, but maybe I'll wait for a bounce (though it will probably be minor) - AND I should probably wait until China GDP and other figures. Not sure about when to get back into the dollar either. Against EUR - I was thinking it may pop back to 1.4140-60, but that's not looking likely right now. Thanks Ashraf! BTW - I voted for you for the Shorty awards with a different Twitter account than my usual one in case you didn't recognize it.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jan 20, 2010 19:41
Rob, tell me where did you make money?

Thanks keivan

Ashraf


Keivan
Tehran, Iran
Posts: 5
15 years ago
Jan 20, 2010 18:12
Thank you Ashraf
Also I already voted you on shortyaward :)
keivan
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Jan 20, 2010 17:17
Ashraf - INSANE calls lately. I think you've nailed every single one since the beginning of this year. Thanks for all your hard work - and generous sharing! Looking forward to a killer 2010, couldn't do it without you!
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jan 20, 2010 13:47
i hope everyone is busy seeing green on USDCAD (eyeing 1.0490 from 1.0370) and CADJPY (now eyeing next HoTChart target at 86.60).

Thats the 24-hour round the clock analysis we provide and thats why we deserve your generous support at the Twitter Awards http://shortyawards.com/alaidi

Please state a reason

Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jan 20, 2010 13:47
mont. sure but then again when you look at daily cable stochastics showing BEARISH DIVERGENCE, we should test 1.6180. next is 1.6130. Careful with cable. CAD and NZD still offer long opps in USD

Ashraf
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
15 years ago
Jan 20, 2010 13:12
Ashraf: Your twitters and much other work really appreciated - thank you.


Looking at the daily chart for cable, do you think that it will have to get down to the lows of Friday (1.6210 or so) today to confirm its downward turn? (or if not today, then soon)?

On my chart I have converged EMAs 200 & 150 acting as resistance-turned-to-support, which today would be around 1.6220, which it would have to break.

There would seem to be plenty of downside potential below there.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jan 20, 2010 11:00
keivan, i actually said it on twitter few hrs ago that i did not expect cable above 1.6340s DESPITE strong data DUE TO risk aversio (china jitters) please DO READ my tweets www.twitter.com/alaidi

Again, Im putting lots of work on twitter for none else than you guys

Ashraf