AUDNZD Looking for a Turn

Thankyou Pipped---- I am still holding some shorts ( I know crazy) but only in the hope that NFP will bring the AUD/NZD down. I am certain there will be a crash just round the corner, may be next week.

Ashraf - Your thoughts on this would be greatly appreciated - What should I do. Should Icut my losses and wait for another call?? Thanks

@pipster To be honest, I rarely trade yen crosses, let alone stuff like AUDNZD. I tried this one because I read Ashraf's analysis and it made a lot of sense to me. I tend to shy away from pairs without USD in them as they become a combination of two other currencies non_USD to make the move.

I'll use yen crosses once in a while to hedge. I did sell the NZDJPY as a hedge based on Ashraf's call. I have already closed that position at a little profit, but truthfully that is a poor tactic on my part. Poor because I put the position on for a hedge, and now I have removed it.

It's almost criminal seeing how the RBA is bidding AUDNZD to support their homeboy.

BTW, someone else is posting the RBA is selling aussie. This is NOT true. I read the same report as he did, and it clearly said RBA was selling currency at a profit in FX, but it said selling non-AUD currencies. There is the proof that RBA is propping aussie, yet responsible CBs like SNB actually sell their currencies.

Propping Aussie is THE national pastime in Australia. They are well known for establishing lowball estimates on LL economic releases, therefroe when they beat the estimate, aussie rallies. This is a trick U.S. companies did in the late 90s to goose their share prices.

Eventually, aussie will get what's coming to it. The question for this pair is then: will NZD get it at an even pace or slower on the way down or faster on the way up. If so, then AUDNZD declines. If not, we are toast

Pipped,

Do you think it will comedown in line with Ashrafs call?

AUSTRALIAN January trade balance narrowed and came in a tad better than market consensus at a deficit of A$1.176 bln seasonally adjusted vs f/c of a A$1.5 blb deficit. Total exports rose 1% to A$20.146 bln in January from A$19.868 in December while total imports fell 3% to A$21.323 bln in January from A$22.042 bln


does that mean more upward trend tomorrow, until a friday reversal?

I'm not a technical analyst but from a technical point of view, the last few advances in this pair have been followed by pretty substantial retracements. So technically, it would not be surprising if the same happened again.