AUDNZD Looking for a Turn

by Ashraf Laidi
Feb 25, 2010 18:11 | 168 Comments

AUDNZD Looking for a Turn - Audnzdfeb2010 (Chart 1)

AUDNZD is known as the battle of the FX high yielders, but the higher yielding Aussie is likely to lose more ground. Heres a follow-up on last nights initial bearish call. With Aussie rates at 3.75% and their NZ counterpart

at 2.50%, AUDNZD exchange rate is said to be the high yielding pair, which makes it vulnerable to negative currents during reduced risk appetite. Fundamentally, the Reserve Bank of Australia is scheduled to vote on interest rates next Tuesday and is expected to raise rates by 25 bps to 4.00%. The RBA raised in all but one of its last 4 meetings. Considering the reasons for which the RBA it held rates steady at the February meeting (Chinese tightening and renewed risk of global risk aversion), the RBA continues to face these same forces, thereby, may be expected to keep rates unchanged. A decision to hold rates steady would be negative for AUD as it would signal a longer term pause by the central bank after having raised rates by 75 bpsmore than any other central bank in the world. But a decision to raise rates could also be negative for the Aussie if it is accompanied with a statement indicating a peak in rates.

AUDNZD already formed a bearish top this week at 11-month high of 1.2927 before falling down to 1.2832. Considering the negative divergence in the stochastics (falling stochastics despite rising price), we expect further declines to extent to wards a preliminary target of 1.2760 next week followed by 1.26. Any upside is seen limited at 1.2945.

 

More Hot-Charts

  • Dax 200 MA Extension

    Jan 11, 2023 10:57 | by Ashraf Laidi
    If the DAX40 maintains its habit of extending 13% above its 200 DMA, then current upside may extend to as high as 15300, just below the 76% retracement of the decline from the Jan 2022 high to...
  • DXY & CNH

    Dec 6, 2022 14:34 | by Ashraf Laidi
    We know the DXY is highly correlated with USD/CNH so if the Head-&-Shoulder on USD/CNH formation proves valid, then further USD downside lies ahead.  ..
  • Binance Link رابط وكالتي في باينانس

    Nov 12, 2021 12:55 | by Ashraf Laidi
    https://www.binance.com/en?ref=13288560...
Hot-Chart Archives
Comments (Showing latest 10 of 168) View All Comments
said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
13 years ago
Apr 10, 2010 15:22
ashraf
EURO HAS ROCK BOTTOMED!!!??
Khalys
Paris, France
Posts: 3
13 years ago
Apr 10, 2010 8:55
Weekly candle gave us a beautifull pinbar on this pair.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Apr 6, 2010 10:41
Alad, No HotCharts are not deleted. I have winning Hotcharts and I have losing ones.


Ashraf
Alad
United States
Posts: 5
13 years ago
Apr 6, 2010 0:37
Ashraf, would you like to delete this hot chart topic please?
I don't know how many of your clients have lost their money from this hot chart recommendation since your recommendation opened.........
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Mar 19, 2010 23:07
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-blogs/821/

Ashraf
nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
13 years ago
Mar 19, 2010 11:04
could be because copper and gold are holding well and Shanghai composite was positive for the day
chloethebull
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Mar 19, 2010 10:10
@forum...any ideas why audusd is not really falling compared to the usdcad?thanks
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Mar 19, 2010 1:58
Desi, Racska, extended decline in AUDNZD testing 38% retracement may mean that 0.9260 trend line resistance in AUDUSD would fail. See weekly chart

Ashraf
Raczka
Budapest, Hungary
Posts: 2
13 years ago
Mar 14, 2010 23:18
Hi Ashraf,

I can see at a least a triple MACD-divergence on AUD/USD - 4-hour chart. Its also overbought on the daily and on the weekly chart. I know it broke above 0.9080 last week. But will it start turning downwards sometime soon?

Kind regards,

Raczka
said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
13 years ago
Mar 14, 2010 16:11
AUDJPY at 82.10

anybody trade this pair?