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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:
EUR
Discuss EUR in this thread
This pair is killing me. It just can't make up it's mind up today
Yes i am long at 1.2575 with stop loss below 50 targeting 1.2660-12700
we missed the sterling trade yesterday
Is anyone long Eur/Usd today from 1.2585 levels
"But as great an impact this economic turbulence has had for all markets, foreign exchange might be particularly vulnerable to sharp and sudden fluctuations.
That could be because currencies are state contingent; the probability-weighted sum of payoffs under different scenarios, as Chris Dillow, an economist at the Investors Chronicle, puts it.
Any small changes to the odds of small-probability, high-loss events such as the dissolution of the euro zone or an American or British or Japanese default will cause a sharp movement in the currency. Even though the likelihood is small, if it is greater than zero and has a potentially catastrophic outcome, it ought to have a significant price impact."
http://blogs.wsj.com/source/2010/07/05/currency-volatility-is-here-to-stay/
@Forum: There seems to be a bit of a forum consensus that EUR/USD may continue to rise to ...1.27, 1.28, maybe 1.30, maybe 1.35, but then over summer or after, it will get smashed down.
Why do people believe this (if they believe it)? Why couldn't it just keep on going up, especially if the news from the US continues to be bad (and where is the good news likely to come from?).
Solid buying has been seen on dips with real-money players steady buyers this afternoon. Still, EUR/USD trades with a heavy tone as Wall Street trades in the red after a 20 point rally in the S&P and a 175 point rally in the Dow disappear.
Bids are seen in the 1.2605/15 region with small stops below 1.2600. mainly around 1.2590. Major resistance at 1.2675 and 1.5230 (in Cable) have both survived sever tests from below today.