EUR

looks like it has taken a direction..... we'll see more gains next week....
extension to 41xx level likey b4 correcton back down to mid 38xx level then push higher toward 4500 level...
gl all

To all the Elliot wave / technical / charters out there,


Employers cut staffing by 95,000 workers after a revised 57,000 decrease in August, Labor Department figures in Washington showed today. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 5,000 drop.


now what does your charting say? short the euro some more?

hahaha

A part of our communication problem is none of us know what others are playing range wise. e.g I trade positions anything from an 11 month gold position to a 10 min news play or a minor 100 pip intra day ret.

Goldman, Credit swiss, Scotia mentioning 1.50 Euro dollar

Ashraf - what about your 3, 6, 12 month target?

I would think EuroDollar would be 1.55 in 3 months, 1.50 in six months and 1.25 in 12 months
the assumption is that a high Euro will cause stagnation with 3-6 months resulting the ECB to back off

A couple of months ago, in the US the Treasury and Obama said that they want to double the US exports in 5 years. At that time, it was more funny than anything serious.
However, hypothetically, how much would the Dollar Index need to fall for the US exports to double globally - I think this would be below 60 which means 20% further drop in the Dollar index. this would be massive with global consequences.

This is clear that the US is going for a weak dollar to become more competitive.
At the same time, if they also start cuts in spending, then the dollar will not weaken much and the result would only be a increase in the FED balance sheet.

Its not really clear what the FED wants to do
1- increase its balance sheet so that there is more money in the system that ultimately results in more hiring and construction (bit crazy idea)
2- increase its balance sheet to weaken the dollar and trigger exports (what the market currently beleives)
3- increase its balance sheet to counter the tightening that will come from tax raises and spending cuts (probably the real cause)

Also, the next issue
- at what price point does the Oil price begin to bite the US economy (100 or 120 or 150?)
- how is the FED going to get all this liquidity out of the system eventually

The US econmy is around 14 trillion.
US Budget in 2010 around 3.5 trillion.
Budget deficit around 1.3 trillion --> 37% of the budget spending is borrowing which is -9% deficit of GDP (-1.4 trillion in 2009, ~-500 billion 2008)
FED balance sheet around ~ 2 trillion.

How can the US increase its tax receipts? higher income taxes and or higher corporate taxes or cuts in spending. In the global competitive landscape, it is clear that heavy spending cuts ae required which is what the Republicans are going to do.

Why is then the FED trying to print money / increase its balance sheet?
Its clear that the FED is a bunch of clowns playing to the political galleries - ultimately smebody loses out of all these asset bubbles. In this case, people holding Dollar paper will loose.

But I have said this for atleast last five years - :-)

@forum..don;t really play much other than usdcad..but im thinkn shorting eru$$ @ current levels might be a really nice play for a 100pips..do i dare say 200pips..lookin foirward to ashrafs imt on nfp tomor..gl guys:)