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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Jun 10, 2009 18:17
Comments: 208
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Falling Equities Still Key for Dollar

Intermarket analysis set-up still suggests that fresh equity selling remains the only source of support for the US currency.
 
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ashit
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 19, 2009 6:34
how do u know the falling equity is going to fall further? do u c global stock markets have recovered so much? and what bull shit intermarket analysis, there is acually no interraltion between currenceis and stocks, but rather only stocks with bonds, in the past, ppl connect Crude oil and gold to currencies and to stock market, why not connecting them again to stocks market now? the dollar is rallying because it move into bull trend already, has nothing to do with stock market.
Ashraf Laidi
UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 18, 2009 10:05
Slaiman, thanks for the Neely link. I appreciate links as long as they're legitimate, appropriate, and nonoffensive. Neely is a well known market timer. Although i reduced my chances of seeing market below the March lows, i still maintain chances such happening at about 60%.

Ashraf
slaiman7
Lebanon
Posts: 31
15 years ago
Jun 18, 2009 4:33

Dear all,

Glenn Neely, considered as one of the best market timers, announced that S&P could go below 500!!!

Check the link below. http://www.prweb.com/releases/2009/06/prweb2537224.htm

Ashraf, I am not sure if you allow such links in your forums. I apologize if you don't. I would really like to get your opinion about such prediction.


Thanks
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jun 17, 2009 13:22
Alex, congrats on the short. Best to take profit now (always take money out of the bank) and consider new shorts on next bounce to 0.7900s for 0.7820 target.

Ashraf
Alex
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 17, 2009 12:12
Hey Ashraf,

I was wondering what your thoughts are on the AUS USD...I Shorted it from 81 for 200 pips. I have been hesitant to go for a longer term short seeing that the USD rebound has been short lived.

What are your thoughts?

Kind Regards,
Alex
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jun 17, 2009 9:30
Slaiman, if Fed does NOT announce more purchases, that would be LESS negative for dollar. or you can say positive for dollar

Ashraf
slaiman7
Lebanon
Posts: 31
15 years ago
Jun 17, 2009 2:02

Mo, thank you very much.

Ashraf, you expect EURUSD to be around 1.36 by end of june. However, with the Fed meeting on june 24-25, don't expect them to announce additional QE which should be dollar negative and hence EURUSD much higher than 1.36? or do you not expect the fed to announce additional QE until the next meeting?

slaiman
Qin
Jonkoping, Sweden
Posts: 492
15 years ago
Jun 16, 2009 23:22
Hey, Arshaf
Thank you for the advice.
I will look for a chance to hedge my positions a little bit.

Best regards
Qin
Qin
Jonkoping, Sweden
Posts: 492
15 years ago
Jun 16, 2009 23:18
Hey, Arshaf; Gary
I have a question about bond and USD.

FED is buying more bonds by its printing money. It will keep the bond yielding low.
When interest rate is lower, it will boost stock market. In the end USD will keep declining.

Is the theory correct??

Best regards
Qin
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jun 16, 2009 23:14
Qin, do you mean to hedge your long AUDUSD by shorting EURUSD? That's not bad idea. If i were you i would go for shorting NZDUSD (cheaper than eurusd). But the key with these hedges is the quantity of the hedge relative to the initial position. You could also engage in incremental positioning in your short NZDUSD. And if your AUDUSD position is large enough, you can keep it to earn interest.

Gary, i agree. the big question (as i said last thursday) is the extent of the Fed's success in keeping yields low. if bernanke does it by buying treasuries then very bad for dollar. if yields drop by themselves (due to bad data) then we could have a neutral to strong dollar.

alive, I agree.

Ashraf
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