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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:
EUR
Discuss EUR in this thread
if ECB does more QE and real money printing ... opposite to "logic" EUR will break 1.32 and continue up
Ezone will avoid IMF stepping in so I think ECB will extend its bond buying program to FED figures....
this will put ECB at a much higher risk than FED
so
1.50 followed by sub parity is a viable way
but as Merkel-controlled Weber has a say... its all open.
now have OCO short entry ( big pos ) 1.30 long entry 1.32
no analysis can foretell political decison making. Has one ever seen a political flipping coin? No? Why not?
They are too lazy to search for the coin on the floor in the most likely case they fail to catch the falling coin. So they employ someone for darting.
come to think of it... you were very confident also back then when you called shorts at 1.2xxx level and looking for parity by yearend.... :) not much different except for the 2000 pips diffrence....
what levels would you be shorting and what would be your stops?
just curious... if you're so confident about 1.20... shouldn't you be short already and holding it? :)
closed long and stay sideline
i guess you've learned one lesson... :)
never say "NEVER"...
good traders should always be prepared for the unexpected...
EURUSD will jump to 1.50 1.60 1.70 ....
that is result of a math calculus.
SHORT TERM...
- yes... still expecting 1 more dip(2850/2900) for current move down from the top as long as 3380/3400 level caps any upmove... above 3400 would signal test to the upside first and focus will be 3600/50...
- expecting minimum test of 3270/80 for current bounce or if breaks above 3300... i see test of 3380/3400... then down...
LONG TERM..
form 1875 bottom... Euro has risen in five waves until recent high...
wave 1.. 1875-2470
wave 2.. 2470-2150
wave 3.. 2150-3340
wave 4.. 3340-2580
wave 5.. 2580-4285
by breaking below 3697... it has confirmed the 5thwave top at 4285...
now... we are forming the correction wave A(expected around 2850/2900... break above 3400 confirms wave A finished at 2968...) then wave B to be around 3700 then wave C which could extend to 2750/2800...
this would be negated once it breaks below 2587 or should be cautious with monthly close below 2800...
LONGER TERM...(not really significant at current level)
looking at monthly chart...
1.1630(main support and last low b4 prinitng at 1.6050) is still intact which suggest the longer term bullishness still intact... WHICH MAKES ME THINK... from 6050 top... we have made an A(2325)-B(5150)-C(1875) correction... and current wave(1875-4285) could be impulsive in nature rather corrective....
that's the technical side...
fundamentally....
yes Euro debt woes is in focus now... which was the the main driver for current drop in Euro... giving more reasons for profit taking coming to a year end... but the current drop could already be pricing in Spain(which seem to be the biggest risk already)... could be "buy the rumor.. sell the fact"....
conclusion...
as long as 2600 holds.... could see Euro moving higher or ranging between 2600/4500(break above 4500 could target 5100/5200) level...
but if 2600 gives way 1.2000 would be the level Euro will be heading for early part of next year...
good luck all!