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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:

EUR

Discuss EUR in this thread
 
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Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
12 years ago
Nov 16, 2011 22:10
that is a long time, your options must cover 6 months or long.

i strongly believe below 125 is initial target in next 3 months. euro re-surge will be a long long way ahead, 6 month may not enough.

2014? maybe

also, what is your parity timetable for eur usd?
jacek
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 2579
12 years ago
Nov 16, 2011 22:08
wishfull thinking.. a range then..
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
12 years ago
Nov 16, 2011 22:02
Printing money is not a structural solution but if ECB does so, it obtains the role of an EZone anchor like FED. Then follows that Ezone must unite , common treasury common economy...
iow Merkel has no say anymore.
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
12 years ago
Nov 16, 2011 21:21
cant understand, but i believe john mauldin "It is structural. And until the structural issues are dealt with, the problems will not be solved. "

print money is not a structural solution, neither ezonebond.

also, i dont think strong euro is good for ezone for next few yrs.
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
12 years ago
Nov 16, 2011 21:02
3 to 6 months before that EURUSD will drop further even to 1.30 but the ECB is out of time
default of a major EZone member can happen any day ( Spain Italy the most likely candedates) so around end november starting up
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
12 years ago
Nov 16, 2011 20:34
do you mean temp effect, time range around several months or weeks!
jacek
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 2579
12 years ago
Nov 16, 2011 19:33
K.. good posts, thx.. always good to be reminded of larger forces at play..
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
12 years ago
Nov 16, 2011 19:31
Because a backstop guaranteed by ECB will lure buyers of troubled bonds. EFSF was a total failure. If the yield differentials drop a major cause for uncertainty in Euro goes away.
And of course if ECB becomes lender of last resort EZone must unite economically and politically and thus pave the way for Eurobonds.
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
12 years ago
Nov 16, 2011 19:12
cat, i dont understand why ECB print money can lift eurusd? if temp effect, it could be, but dont think lift eurusd for 800-1000 pips.

a lot of US banks hold cash for cheap euro asset, cheap eur is good for them, unless they hold eur now, but that is nonsense.

btw, china bought 11bln UST in sep.
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
12 years ago
Nov 16, 2011 17:47
Its all about whether or not ECB repeats FED step by step . ECB must monetize Italy bonds and so on NOW. This paves the way to Eurobonds which not only China will buy at 4.5% 10 y
It is a matter of days, not weeks. Thus my forecast ( 100% chart-free) EURUSD will go to 1.43
once the ECB announces TALF TARP QE and you name it.
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