Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)

shorting aud usd 8750 going long usd chf 10510 anybody interested?

http://jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/July0710Gold.pdf

Ashraf I liked those comments allot, I previously posted a question to you prior to world cup about stock valuation vs commodities and FX. I will look it up to ask you again, but I want to know more about Jpan and the state of Yen.

Plus I do agree CHFYEn pair positively will maintain its course and Swissie being considered as safe haven which it's been for a very long time vs the stocks. But the Yen story, what I am still unsure about really, is this what you would consider as Yen weakness or strength, in light of Japanese economy.

Now I've long being a student of plight of Japan's economic deflation and I realise some individuals in Japan express satisfaction with deflation, since they have seen falling prices for goods and services while their own incomes have held up. That is undoubtedly the case for someespecially academics and government officials with secure jobs and no pay cuts.

In Japan, blame for deflation is often placed on cheap imports from China. However, those imports are only 10 percent of total imports, and total imports are only 10 of GDP. Therefore, imports into Japan represent no more than one percent of GDP. The decline in prices is much too widespread to be accounted for by the impact of rising imports from China.

Deflation makes fixed debt harder to repay out of shrinking revenue or income. The corporate sector entered this period of deflation with excess capacity, low profit rates, and high debt levels, implying that even modest deflation could put them in trouble.

Nevertheless, the ratio of debt to GDP cannot rise indefinitely, which leaves economists wondering when and how the government can reduce its annual deficits. Doing so is dependent on recovery in the economy, which has yet to materialize. Economic recovery would also include a return of low but positive inflation rates, which will help erode the ratio of debt to GDP.

Since nominal interest rates cannot be forced much lower, conventional monetary policy (meaning policy focused on manipulation of interest rates) has reached its limit. This has led to a consideration of unconventional monetary policy

Deflation, even if mild, is proving stubbornly persistent, and has exacerbated the ability of debtors to repay their debts. Households initially liked the idea of falling prices, but they are experiencing falling incomes that offset the gains. Banks still have huge non-performing loans, and more loans continue to go sour. The government fiscal debt is not a problem now, but it is rapidly moving to levels never before seen in advanced industrial nations.

Meanwhile, the policies followed by the Japanese government over the past decade to rectify these problems have not inspired much confidence among economists. The government, for example, has moved forward with policies to deal with non-performing loans, beginning with the jusen crisis in 1995, but the piecemeal process has not been very aggressive given the large amount of non-performing loans still on the books as well as the incomplete resolution of many of the loans listed as written off. As a result, many economists believe that a financial crisis is a real possibility


My question being, in the longer run, can a fiscal crisis be possibility, if when bond markets finally balk at absorbing large volumes of new issues of bonds at low interest rates. The high level of private sector savings has enabled the financing of bond issues so far, but is there fiscal crisis is conceivable now or again in another decade. Since the government can print money, there is no risk of outright default on government debt, right?. But are there any worrying signs for investors that the very high level of debt will lead to inflation, at which point they will stop purchasing more bonds unless interest rates are moved higher. If that were to happen, then would the government be forced to monetize its debt, bringing about the inflation that the market feared and maybe for once continue raising rates. As was the case in the late 1940s, the level of inflation could be very high, with all the detrimental economic consequences that entails (such as wiping out the value of savings accounts).

i have a dream... not not that i do it again entry usdcad long @14090
entry audusd short @08650
entry nzdusd short @07038

sure sl is set @1495