Forum - Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices) (Topic)

jacek

Melbourne, Australia

Posts: 2579

13 years ago

Apr 20, 2011 0:24

and you seem to made nice dosh in gold.. i tried silver but got burnt by volatility.. I wish I had Ashraf ratios to work with then..

jacek

Melbourne, Australia

Posts: 2579

13 years ago

Apr 20, 2011 0:20

Wow! another priceless gem from you, Dave.. btw how did you find transition from eng to trade.. such different worlds.. one predictable another not.. In my case I needed a lot of psychological help to do that..

DaveO

UK

Posted Anonymously

13 years ago

Apr 20, 2011 0:08

I been trading gold up since 03 $350 levels. Usually catch a chunk of the corrections also. My issue with EWI was the correction from March 08 high of 1033 to the Oct 08 low at 681. I labelled the move down an ABCDE corrective, they labelled it a 5 wave impulsive sequence which implied a correction back up to lower high before moving back down to deeper lows. At the time Prechter was calling big time deflation with stocks, gold et al cratering.

EWA rules were blatantly breached in their count with regard to wave overlap, no excuses whatsoever. The result was that while I was trading gold back up to the Dec 09 high at 1227 the EWI boys were calling short almost the entire way up. Not very clever, I would call it utterly incompetent.

My motto. "Get the Job Right First and the Money Will Follow" My experience from 33 yrs in engineering and 16 yrs in trading.

Be careful talking about hoarding the yellow metal itself for your own security reasons.

10% ROC p.a once experienced would be a dismal goal.

Not wishing to sound patronising ! First and only realistic target is to develop your edge to consistent b/e performance and that means "consistent". Never look back from there. gl.

bigBaby

Singapore, Singapore

Posts: 21

13 years ago

Apr 19, 2011 16:28

@DaveO. Advice is greatly appreciated.

Dynamic Traders have not responded and I will try directing my mail to Mr Miner himself.

bigBaby

Singapore

Posted Anonymously

13 years ago

Apr 19, 2011 16:16

The most convenient target to set is a monetary one. I would be lying if I said that I am only in it for learning. Funny that money enables us to measure our success in matters that we otherwise wouldnt be able to measure.

Have read so many times that breaking even in these markets is an achievement in itself. So with that in mind I am hoping to break even during the first 2 years and am aiming for 10% returns p.a thereafter.

My entrance into the markets(beginning of this year) coincided with the rise in metal prices. So that piqued my interest in gold and silver and I am getting impatient to trade in them. Have been persuaded and brainwashed into thinking that they are the ultimate currency and store of value(not by EWI definitely).

These 'barbaric metals' are now looking sexy, i.e the physical bars and coins.

So while accumulating them, I felt it would be fun to also engage in some longer term paper gold investments and some small time paper trades in these metals.

I realise I have a fatal attraction going on in here- with apparently 2 difficult subjects- EWA & Gold/Silver.

But like they say, better to have tried and failed than not to try at all.

DaveO

UK

Posted Anonymously

13 years ago

Apr 19, 2011 14:22

@bigbabe, I think you might be trying to go too fast (naturally). Important to keep the day job going whilst on the earlier stages of the learning curve for trading. Prove your edge first before taking any domestic risks. Relax a little and start accumlating and studying all the right books and sites. Set a 3 year goal to achieve certain tasks. Keep losses very tight with small lot size to make your account last a long time whilst you develop and refine your personal edge. Losses are biz expenses and you will have plenty of them, no avoiding that while you learn. Market very good teacher if you will but listen to what it is telling you. gl.

To be honest about this, if you achieve a consistent break-even performance by end of year 3 you can consider that quite exceptional. You have to develop the mindset of starting a degree course with a new carreer in mind where the work experience is in stages, a little like a medic combining hospital experience with essential studies.

bigBaby

Singapore, Singapore

Posts: 21

13 years ago

Apr 18, 2011 22:01

oh oh, doesnt look good for me with gold closing near day highs

bigBaby

Singapore

Posted Anonymously

13 years ago

Apr 18, 2011 21:44

@dave, since I am gainfully employed elsewhere for the foreseeable future, I am glad I dont feel pressured to perform in this market(s). To that extent I will accept my fumbling, whilst toying with the dreaded not- so-easy-to-apply EWA, which nevertheless to me is by far the most interesting of all the technical methods. Coupled with some strict money and trade management discipline, I intend to escape with limited losses if I have to from this otherwise treacherous and unpredictable yet interesting market.

I am still inclined to think that fundamental news together with crowd psychology(despite Prechter's refusal to reconcile the two, I can somehow imagine both of these acting in unison most of the time) determines the overall directions of markets. Nevertheless I am hoping that with some degree of knowledge in EWA I would be able to formulate my own entry and exit points and appreciate/understand or refute what the gurus are saying. I do like to read and make notes(long time habit) so that's not really a problem.

Must make mention of Tony from Elliott Wave Lives who not only puts out his commentary daily for free but is very accommodative and responsive to all kinds of queries, including those which are technical that are put to him incessantly. God bless that guru and his community. If you have done your part in the past, you have already earned your stripes. Whoah !

Qingyu

manchester, UK

Posts: 1763

13 years ago

Apr 18, 2011 21:37

thank you!

DaveO

N.Cornwall, UK

Posts: 5733

13 years ago

Apr 18, 2011 21:28

SPX and ES futures retraced up into the close. Breadth retraced up from -2337 to -1864. Bid/ask delta cratered down from -412,496 to -743,809 in last 20 mins.

This was not a classic 8% trend day. Frankly we almost never see them to the downside, only to the upside.