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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8935
Forum Topic:

Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)

Discuss Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
 
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Jan 31, 2011 19:55
Boli, yep I had the 61.8% which also coincided with the 100 dma. The significance of the 127% sym ext is for typical completion of a "simple"corrective. Much deeper than that and my count changes to a W.3 rather than a W.C. The 2 levels provided for a nice cluster close together and any breach of that 61.8% level would have had me alerted for further downside. Once the 87.66 candle high was taken that's my signal for long trade or more conservative the 87.85 level taken.

Now that crude has made a new high it constitutes the minimum requirement to validate the count.
Boli Mekura
Guam
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 31, 2011 19:27
Directly - no
But indirectly - yes. If Egypt is not stable, then a key US and Israel ally is lost and this will threaten the fragile balance in the region.
chloethebull
Canada
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 31, 2011 19:26
yup i agree with ya.but possib other other gover see the reaction +results an try to make changes b4 there run outta town which would just make cl correct lower..these gove need to see that the old school strong arm method are no longer usefull even military refuses to side with presidents..no1 is willing to kill a protestor for wanting a better life that barbaric thinkn is done with..what does every1 think abouit such protests spreading to china:) gl:)
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 31, 2011 19:24
Much depends on egypt army are they loyal to Mubarak ..or to Muslim Brothers?
Egypt has not much impact on oil fundamentally but much impact on natgas for Israel.
Boli Mekura
Guam
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 31, 2011 19:15
chloe, think about this regarding Egypt:
There are 2 options as far as I can see right now:
1) Mubarak under the pressure from the protesters, resgns tomorrow without any violence and there is a smooth transition of power. At first this will lead to a sell-off in crude. But I think when the protestors in other Middle East countries see that 2nd "dictator" is ousted under the pressure of protest, they will be embolden and this will lead to renewed protests in this countries and this will again bring uncertainty and oil will again rise.

2) Mubarak does not resign under the pressure of the protests. But as I can see it, the protestors are determined to oust him. So I think escalation of violence is inevitable and this will bid oil price further.

So it seems it is a win-win situation for oil. And this is why crude is building on Fri's gains.
chloethebull
Canada
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 31, 2011 19:04
with cl hiting 92.50 an usdcad playing very strong..IF this situation is resolved peacefully with pos+outcome oil will collapse spiking usdcad up towards 1.0180 level mayb even higher:) gl
chloethebull
Canada
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 31, 2011 18:58
when i did the usdcad last nite i found a break of 1.0030 next resistance level @1.0120 b4 moving onto ashraf t/p 1.0180. so i might try to flip some an buy back on a retest of 1.0100 but will sell most of the position around 1.0160..20pips from ashraf t/p so feel safe the orders will be hit:) gl
Boli Mekura
Guam
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 31, 2011 18:57
DaveO, re WTI
The low at 85.11 was exactly 61.8% fib correction of the latest upside move. Check it out.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Jan 31, 2011 18:51
yeah Chloe, you caught that cad sob real nice. Watch the 1.0100 symmetry level for potential beer stop. Beyond that 127% @ 1.0153. gl.
chloethebull
Canada
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 31, 2011 18:38
hey daveo thanks for the help with the charts i spent 4hrs yesterday doing complete work up on eurusd+usdcad...got myself situated to were i want to be exiting/entry i also find it helps me be more disiplined..just find the support # load the prices in an walk away:)..so thanks:)..what ya think of usdcad strength(very impressive)