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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 2338
Forum Topic:

USD

Discuss USD
 
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Oct 19, 2010 19:34
USDx nears pre QE2 announcement level 78,47 EURJPY looks horrible EURUSD looks 13700
begin to believe in Ashraf's bullish doji and bullish hammers.... or is it just pure chance?

catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Oct 19, 2010 16:56
the proper value of EUR is 1,20 USD not more. Today it became strikingly clear Weber has not the slightest idea of the tasks of ECB. Just a crack pot.
In fact it is very bad for EUR the increasing differences of eurozone economies.
Germany needs already higher rate Spain needs lower rate.
Apparently this crack pot thinks PBOC will accomplish what ECB doesn' get mentally.
Nope.
Now Germany has pension age 67 and France wants to keep 60. That makes a big difference in productivity . Again politics will eventually destroy Euro.

said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
12 years ago
Oct 19, 2010 16:25
a joint intervention
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
12 years ago
Oct 19, 2010 16:09
@stationdealer not sure I understand what your comments mean re: Yen and swissie...pls clarify?
Stationdealer
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Oct 19, 2010 11:35
I see the on going pressure of dollar strength momentum now we can have a nice reversal and hopefully continuation of long in euro and GBP. So long EU and GBp and if momentum breaks further lets get in for the 3rd leg of down side move. Not yet sure about Yen so far as it may react the swisse when SNB was intervening probably not as huge as swisse effect but surely some what of an effect that will confuse traders.

Metals on the other hand I hold short near term. Oil another weak base commodity back of dollar roll over. Mean while S&P, Nasdaq and Dow do make good indicators at whole a picture of the american economy, wait till the M3 data will be received next month.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
12 years ago
Oct 18, 2010 23:59
This time is different, deflationary spiral will arrive. USD up, stocks down, gold down.
said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
12 years ago
Oct 18, 2010 23:07
equity cycle versus commodities cycle. every twenty years a bull market in commodities appears in several phases. since one began in 2004/2006. it has yet fifteen years to run and all the institution are doing is feeding the commodities circle. inflation is not depicted in the datas as it should be ; gauge the street and u will feel it.
how do u call inflation plus risng unemployment?
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Oct 18, 2010 22:31
Deflation has zero or negative cpi. Every easy money bubble leads inevitably to deflation as
all that liquidity is not capital. Or, debt cannot be paid with liquidity. So eventually cash becomes rare and cpi becomes as negative as now effective rate is negative.
said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
12 years ago
Oct 18, 2010 21:59
understand the international exposure of the atlanta fed reserve and especially its working paper on international economic cooperation.
expecting a deflation that will not come could be a risky bet for lokhart and its head. are the betting on decreasing cpi?
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Oct 18, 2010 21:49

More so-called quantitative easing is a form of risk management, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said in a speech in Savannah, Georgia. Given the circumstances of sluggish growth and measured inflation that is too low, I give greater weight to the risk of further disinflation leading to deflation.

I think there will no further deterioration of USD. There is no indication that the USD is entering a period of serious danger.Even a big chunk of easy money by QE2 will not stop to shore up USD by co devaluating.
It is obvious easy money is first of all for emerging markets and hence China. As easy money
creates national debt , China is the easy money tank , it imports debt.
To avoid or at least postpone deleveraging it is therefore necessary appreciates the yuan.
That is about the same as making more space in the easy money debt tank. It must happen soon or deleveraging will come early.