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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Nov 15, 2010 4:25
Comments: 46
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

EURGBP & Gold vs Aussie Signals

EURGBP is the preferred short euro play for now, whiile Gold in Aussie terms gives more clues on Gold's direction than Gold/USD
 
Lawrence
Tennessee, United States
Posts: 14
9 years ago
Mar 4, 2011 1:44
Thanks for the insight, Ashraf. And good luck with your future plans.
chloethebull
Canada
Posted Anonymously
9 years ago
Mar 3, 2011 23:53
so dave if ur saying the uk is going to be painful for next 2yr & we know the eurzone still has major debt issues that need to be resolved..which arn;t and due to irish elections we know kenny is going to try and renegotiate the interest on the bailout but merkel said that very unlikely to happen that should add more doubt&uncertanty to the eur..then we have usa posting pretty good data..fed now expressing high oil could be inflationary might have to get more hawkish like the ecb..mayb im just a $$ bull and need to let it go but i think usd could go on a run lol..any ways gl:)
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
9 years ago
Mar 3, 2011 23:36
Good thinking Kam ! (I would not be short eurgbp just recently) Trading weekly timeframe a different matter, your stop will be 8750, youch)

Uk economy very different to eur, cannot be compared. Much of our inflation is external plus the effects of radical deficit cuts not even started to work through yet. Next 2 years will be painful.
Kam
london, UK
Posts: 31
9 years ago
Mar 3, 2011 19:47
Ashraf,

I am short eurgbp from 85.50 based on technicals (the weekly wedge!) but am concerned that perhaps the techincals don't reconcile with the fundamental position. In you analysis back in November 2010 the pound was fundamentally better placed with Euro debt crises etc but now with the rate hike speculation, ECB rhetoric today, Dismal UK q4 growth and full impact of UK cuts ahead, are you still in favour of gbp V euro.

On another note why does 2.4% inflation in Euro zone lead to ECB being so hawkish on rate hike whilst 5% inflation in UK is not a cause of concern (relatively to Euro zone) Is this to do with relative growth prospects.

Kamran
Ashraf Laidi
UK
Posted Anonymously
9 years ago
Mar 3, 2011 18:41
Tennessee, the correlation broke not only between AUD and Gold but also between AUD and equities. This is more in reflection of the Aussie's dubious fundamentals (no more rate hikes in med term & questions about sustainainability for consumers and home buyers) and impact of upcoming rate hikes.


Ashraf
Lawrence
Tennessee, United States
Posts: 14
9 years ago
Mar 3, 2011 2:04
Ashraf,

Has Gold and AUD correlation broken down? Do you still see gold at $1550 in the near future?
said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
9 years ago
Feb 14, 2011 17:23
eh the scottish portuguese, are you on my roof?
said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
9 years ago
Feb 14, 2011 17:16
yes turner
retrait des options sur dow jones.
camilla
said
France
Posted Anonymously
9 years ago
Feb 2, 2011 14:52
absolutely madeleine de montmorency.
in the reports of the BIS, and that's why white has put this report on GOLD few years ago.
replace ur fleet dealers.
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
9 years ago
Feb 2, 2011 14:47
It seems to me that because trading volume* in EUR/USD and GBP/USD is so much higher than that in EUR/GBP, the price of the latter pair is highly dependent on what happens in the former two pairs. It's a bit like a straw blowing in a gusting wind - fairly hard to predict, unless there are strong fundamentals that only affect EUR vs GBP strength and not the relationship of the other two pairs.

This is why I no longer, or almost never, trade EUR/GBP.

I suppose that purely technical short-term moves may be an exception to this.


*[These numbers are in the annual reports for the International Bank of Settlements]