Archived IMT (2009.10.13)

CPI DAMAGE TO STERLING as consumer price index tumbles to 7-year low of 1.1% y/y in September from vs. expected 1.3%. Once again we alerted you in the previous IMT about the possibility of a weaker than expected CPI unleashing more damage to a currency whose central bank is considering further QE. GBPUSD hits 5-month lows, testing the key $1.5730 support--38% retracement of the move from the 1.3660 low to the 1.7013 high. Expect to see 1.5680 to act as interim support, but any sharp decline in stocks to call up 1.55 by mid week. EURGBP tests 0.94, a break of which clears way for 0.9450. Oil strength continues to empower CAD and overall USD weakness. which is providing some support for GBPUSD.