Intraday Market Thoughts

Archived IMT (2009.11.04)

by Ashraf Laidi
Nov 4, 2009 14:01

Oct ADP -203K vs. exp. -190K but Sep was revised to -227K from -254K. Risk appetite picks up on the 3rd straight improved revision. Watch the ISM as well as the COMPONENTS, such as Employment and New Orders indices. US 10-yield posts its 3rd straight daily gain, eyeing 3.55%. Cable still capped at 1.6575-80. OIL MAKING AN IMPORTANT breach above the 80.40 resistance and could well extend its gains IF THE FED MAKES NO CHANGE in the phrase "exceptionally low...for extended period". ONLY In the event that the FOMC statement softens the language, such as changing the adjectives exceptionally low or extended period, would the US dollar and bond yields garner further gains at the expense of equities. We do expect FOMC language to improve the assessment on the economy, but the key remains with aforementioned phrase "exceptionally low" and/or "extended period". EURJPY eyeing 134.70, a break of which to call up 135.50.


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