Archived IMT (2009.12.28)

The commodities-based CRB index closed up 1.3% at 284.45, nearing the 2009 high of 285.18 reached in October 21. Note that October 21 was 6 days after oil had hit its high for the year at $82.00. Today, oil gains for the 4th consecutive session to close at $78.77, facing 80.81 as the key resistance, which coincides with the 100-week MA. Oil has not broken above its 100-week MA since October 2008. Yen weakness is increasingly seen as the preferred funding currency for these risk trades, especially after Tokyo unveiled its biggest budget ever at Yen 92 trillion. USDJPY is still expected to retest 92.25, followed by 93.00, while CADJPY is set to recapture the 88.20s highs from mid October.