Archived IMT (2010.02.05)

As we move into the US jobs report (13:30 GMT exp +5K, prev -85K, unemp rate exp 10.1% from 10.0%), investors must be aware of the following; strong US data have led to strength in USD, equities and commodities, only for the stocks and commodities to retreat lower and the US currency to remain firm. As long as payrolls do NOT show a decline of more than 20K or 30K, markets will consider the report a strong one, assuming the prior decline of 86K was not revised. With such win-win situation for the US dollar, we would expect EURUSD bounce to be limited at $1.3750, with downward path towards $1.35 firmly in place. This could also be the day we see 1040 gold as USDX nears 80.80.