Archived IMT (2010.02.08)

Unlike EUR net shorts vs. USD which have reached new record high of 43,741 contracts SEE CHART http://chart.ly/8ec4fx GBP net shorts remain well off their October highs of 62,106 contracts, reflecting less GBP pessimism in the currency against USD. But rising expectations that BoE will be forced into fresh asset purchases ahead of an uncertain election year, coupled with outright longs being built in USD, may prompt speculators into expanding their shorts near the October highs. The BoE may not be in a hurry to inject fresh QE, but markets will grow especially vigilant in viewing upcoming data with a QE lens, especially as the impact of the VAT hike and oil recovery recedes into the remaining of the quarter. Technically. Sterling's decline against USD and JPY is prompting traders to probe $1.5350 and 138.20 respectively as early as this week.