Archived IMT (2010.04.08)

In todays ECB press conference, JC Trichet is expected to reiterate the ECBs accepting of BBB-rate bond collateral beyond year-end in order to extend Greek participation at ECBs regular refinancing operations. As this greases the wheels of sub-standard-liquidity creation in contrast to tightened policy in the US, Australia and Canada, the euro is expected to pursue its ongoing decline, towards $1.30 and $1.28 before quarter-end. GBP is the 4th worst performing currency so far this year out of 35 currencies, with any positive data reaction being displayed mainly against EUR. GBPUSDs ongoing failure to regain $1.53 (despite positive construction and manufacturing data) underlines the looming technical weakness. We expect a gradual path towards $1.5030 and $1.4870. Medium term target stand at $1.4380.