Archived IMT (2008.10.30)

US Q3 GDP fell by an annualized 0.3% from +2.8% in Q2, posting the second negative quarterly decline since Q1 2007 and the biggest since Q3 2001.

MOST STRIKNG in todays report is the 3.1% decline in personal consumption expenditure, which is the biggest drop since the 8.6% plunge in Q2 1980, which was the longest post war recession. The contribution from next exports fell to 1.13% from 2.93%, which is the biggest decline since Q1 2007. Despite the slowing export component captured in todays Q3 GDP release, further export slowdown is yet to come due to the dollars additional 8% appreciation against the European currencies since the beginning of Q4.