Archived IMT (2010.04.27)

GOLD STAND OUT FROM COMMODITY DAMAGE as the yellow metal soars over $25 to hit new 2010 high at 1172. But the fact that silver, copper and oil each fell sharply today, underlines the knee-jerk reaction of safe-haven buying after the Greece-Portugal downgrades and the questioning of Goldman Sachs. VIX JUMPS 5.30 to 22.81 or 31%, making its 6th largest daily close since records began in 1993, closing ABOVE ITS 55, 100 and 200-DAY MA IN A SINGLE DAY. We have seen over the past 5 months that surging VIX and falling stocks have impacted gold negatively. Combining the escalation in market uncertainty as measured by these historical metrics as well as the potential for tightening policy, gold could face some headwindsespecially if tomorrows FOMC statement removes the extended period phrase. AUSSIE Q1 CPI due at 1:30 am GMT could be especially AUD bearish in the event of CPI comes in at or below 2.5% y/y and/no moir than +0.7% q/q. Any rebound from high CPI is seen capping AUDUSD at 0.9230.