Archived IMT (2010.06.30)

ADP TURNS BELOW TREND. ADPs +13K increase in June was the lowest in 4 months. While the survey of private payrolls had become known for its underestimation of the BLSs private payrolls, the May figure was the first overestimation of the BLS report since April 2009. The drop off in census workers will further cloud the relationship for the June figure. In term of trend, the 13K increase means the ADP has fallen below its 3-month moving average for the first time since March 2009when the survey hit its all time low since records began. EURUSDs recurring pattern of lower highs (see chart) highlights the difficulty of the $1.2370-75 resistance, while the interpolated downside target suggests a looming break towards the $1.2105-00.