Intraday Market Thoughts

Archived IMT (2010.08.06)

by Ashraf Laidi
Aug 6, 2010 14:52

The US JULY JOBS report (-131K NFP, private payrolls +71K from +31K, unemp rate unchanged at 9.5%) is sufficiently negative for the market to sell the USD across the board based on the rationale of additional easing measures from the Fed. I noted yesterday "negative US jobs report may not boost the USD on the rationale of risk aversion, with the explanation stating that Unlike in other cases when falling stocks have proven positive for USD, a disappointing July payrolls figure will justify the Feds downward forecasts and unusually uncertain view at the expense of prolonged downside in bond yields and USD. USD INDEX DEEPENS LOSSES BELOW 200-day MA of 80.70, leaving EURUSD as the ONLY MAJOR currency to yet rise above its won 200-day. We should see more USD selling in the event that stocks head back into positive territory intraday basis, but even a renewed retreat is UNLIKELY to prevent EURUSD from hitting $1.3330 next week,with a possible breach towards $1.34 nearing FOMC. YEN CROSSES will be as volatile as stocks are, but given the fact that global bond yields are around 16-nmonth lows, yen strength will likely prevail.


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