Intraday Market Thoughts

Archived IMT (2010.08.16)

by Ashraf Laidi
Aug 16, 2010 14:42

GOLD SEASONALS of the last 8 years indicate Q4 is the best quarter, showing % gains in 7 out of the last 8 years , followed by Q3 and Q1 rising in 6 of the last 8 years. The current gold rally COULD BE ESPECIALLY POWERFUL as it combines the onset of further treasuries purchases by the Fed and broadening questions about Eurozone debt, this time from Ireland. The Irish-German 10 year yield spread is testing the 4.0% territory, which is 20-bps away from the all time high reached in June 2009. Watch Gold in EUR terms and a close above EUR 960/oz. GOLD/USD HAS NOW BROKEN ABOVE its 55, 100 and 200-day MAs FOR THE FIRST TIME since April (when Eurzone debt crisis erupted and fed a 15% rally in gold). $1,270-80 is seen before end of Q4.


Latest IMTs