Intraday Market Thoughts

Archived IMT (2010.08.20)

by Ashraf Laidi
Aug 20, 2010 17:20

SATURDAY's AUSSIE ELECTIONS between Labours Gillard and Conservatives Abbott will be the closest Australia has seen since 1961. Although Gillard has proposed a watered-down version of the super tax on commodities from 40% to 30%, it remains unclear whether a Labour a victory will be negative for the Aussie and Aussie stocks. If recent history holds correct, then Labour will stay stay in power, since no party has been defeated after 1 term. Online bookmaker said the odds of a Gillard victory fell to $1.24 from $1.60 on a $1.0 bet, while the odds of a Hung Parliament feel to $3.85 from $9.00 last month. At the current junture of deteriorating risk appetite and a falling Aussie, the worst case scenario would be a Labour victory because of the taxes on resource companies, though some would argue that her victory would signifiy a win for the incumbent. AUDUSD WEEKLY shows the same technical pattern seen in late April, which led to a 10% selloff. AUDJPY eyes 75.30s, followed by 74. The ELECTION RESULTS coul come in as early as 1-2 hours after the close of US stocks.,


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