Intraday Market Thoughts

Archived IMT (2010.08.27)

by Ashraf Laidi
Aug 27, 2010 5:23

GDPs, BERNANKE & CONSUMER SENTIMENT: UK Q2 GDP (4:30 EST, 8:30 am GMT, 9:30 BST) is expected to remain unrevised at 1.1% (the highest rise in 4 years), but any downward revision will likely ease cable into the $1.5570s.========= US Q2 GDP (8:30 EST, 12:30 GMT) seen revised to 1.3% from the advance reading of 2.4%. Some have mentioned a figure of as low as 0.6%. All components of the GDP report will be revised but the important PCE component (personal consumption expenditure) is seen unchanged at 1.6%. A figure below 1.4% or 1.3% would hit USDJPY hardest, along w/ downward pressure on yen crosses temporarily before market likely regains composure ahead of Bernankes speech. A shockingly low figure (below 1.0%) would not only hit all yen pairs, but would likely trigger broad selling in USD. I see another EURUSD & GBPUSD attempt towards $1.2760s and 1.5620s. ====== === 90 mins later, Bernankes speech titled Economic Outlook & the Federal Reserves Policy Response will hit the wires, which I expect to focus on the POLICY ACTION instead of the FORECASTS and OUTLOOK, in which case he will explain the FOMCs August decision to purchase treasuries as a way to maintain the size of the Balance sheet. Also watch Univ of Mich consumer sentiment due 5 mins before Bernanke's speech, exp at 70 from 67.8, so a positive figure could also help underpin cable and euro vs USD.


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