Intraday Market Thoughts

Archived IMT (2010.08.31)

by Ashraf Laidi
Aug 31, 2010 12:54

CANADA, CHICAGO & FOMC MINUTES, are due today. Canada Q2 GDP is expected to slow sharply to 2.5% q/q from 6.1%, which should prolong USDCADs return towards 1.0660s. Note 1.0670s acted as a consistent resistance over the past since late June and so a sharp slowdown will likely drive CAD shorts to retest those levels. As long a s stocks futures remain pressured, we could see a retest of 78.50s. STERLINGs INEXPLICABLE PLUNGE (perhaps related to buying EURGBP on strong German data) calls up a break of the 55-day MA, currently at 1.5360, which is likely to be broken and lead to 1.5325-30. The FOMC minutes (18:00 GMT) will shed more detail on the split inside the FOMC, which is never a good sign for equities or risk appetite. I noted in yesterdays IMT !the inevitable revisit of 1040 in the S&P500 further weigh in risk currencies and indeed we did see a break of 1.0630 in USDCAD and below 75 in AUDJPY. Negative stochastics in daily AUDUSD calling for 0.8830, with 0.8920s acting as immediate resistance.


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