Intraday Market Thoughts

Archived IMT (2010.09.16)

by Ashraf Laidi
Sep 16, 2010 17:32

SWISS NATIONAL BANK SAW WHAT BANK OF JAPAN DID and left rates unchanged as well as issuing an unexpectedly dovish statement. The SNB may not have intervened, but it did not need to do so when it downgraded its growth and inflation forecasts. Evidently, franc dropped sharply, especially against EUR as some traders were being cautious for a rate HIKE as was predicted by UBS. Looking ahead, I still see fresh DOWNside in USDCHF after any gains being capped at 1.0250s. CHF shall continue to act as the preferred currency during Eurozone debt concerns and/or the next round of treasury purchases by the Fed. If you think Japans trade surplus account for 3% of GDP is solid, how about Switzerland's trade surplus account for 11% of GDP. USDCHF sub parity is to come back & so will 0.9860.


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